Dear Reader,
Good morning!
Happy Tuesday. Tonight I am meeting one of our Alliance members, David N. for dinner while he’s in town.
If you’re an Alliance member and happen to be in town, hit us up. I’ll take you to dinner. I look forward to it.
Anyway, today I want to tackle the question on a lot of investors’ minds…
The question former CEO Eric Schmidt, who led Google through the dot-com bubble, just addressed.
Is AI in a bubble?
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As you may know, because I’ve said this for a while…
A lot of Wall Street folks believe we are in a bubble.
You can tell by their actions.
Sophisticated investors like Warren Buffett have never held as much cash as they are holding now.
They’ve sold off a bunch of things.
Last week Apollo Global’s Chief Economist said the market faces an even bigger bubble than the dot-com boom, and the primary reason in his view was AI.
He says, “the difference between the IT bubble in the nineties and the AI bubble today is that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the nineties.”
And if the nineties were a big bubble and Cisco was the top hardware company of that day, of course today’s “Cisco” would be Nvidia.
Eric Schmidt has a different view.
This is what made me want to write down some notes to share with you.
His view is that we’re not really in a bubble.
He says, “it’s much more likely that you’re seeing a whole new industrial structure.”
That’s an interesting comment.
Personally, I’ve never been more excited about a technology than I am about AI…
More excited and more concerned, frankly. Both. Equally.
Not because of what it does - even though that’s amazing.
See, when the internet came out in the nineties it was clearly a good idea.
It obviously made life easier.
And AI has a lot of the same promise.
It’s fascinating what it’s doing.
I use it almost every day.
At my firm, it is part of our structure here.
Personally, I use it all the time, too.
But what’s really concerning and what I see happening now isn’t its use as a souped up search engine…
It’s when AI jumps off the screen and into the physical world with EI - embodied intelligence.
That is a very big deal. And we’re literally still in the first or second inning of the AI story.
The thing that concerns me - the negative side of it - is how that is going to revolutionize and change the way our world looks.
You can go right now and buy a robot dog for a few thousand dollars. The same one Trump has guarding the White House.
You can go and buy a humanoid robot for $16,000. They’re about two-thirds the size of an adult human and can dance and do all kinds of things.
This is going to be a big deal.
It’s going to be very interesting.
It will change the relationship between the government and the people vis-a-vis work.
I don’t see a scenario where AI doesn’t revolutionize the workplace.
I don’t see how Amazon has anything but robots running their warehouses.
This of course will drive unemployment.
And people have talked about this a lot…
We have populism here in the U.S. at 5% unemployment and that’s disruptive.
Wait till you see what populism looks like with 15% unemployment.
It won’t be pretty.
It just gets worse.
A lot of people, Bill Gates included, have talked about a society in which robots handle most jobs and people get some kind of fixed income from these.
It will be very interesting to see how this plays out in our society.
What I do know for sure is that’s all in the long future.
In the immediate future, what Elon Musk and all these people are working on is a kind of “AI upgrade,” that will really allow AI to jump from the computer screen into robots that walk and talk in our world.
It’s happening as we speak.
That is going to really push AI into high gear, and it’s going to start moving very quickly.
It’s the “tale of two cities” I’ve talked about…
On one hand, you have bubble dynamics.
On the other hand, AI is about to shift into higher gear, and there are amazing opportunities in EI - embodied intelligence.
I don’t think people fully understand what’s going to happen, and how big of an opportunity it will be for investors yet.
But it’s getting there.
That’s why I just went out with this urgent new message for readers.
I hope you’ll take a look for yourself at my research and let me know what you think.
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