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Good evening, Folks. |
Happy Father's Day to all you dads out there. I cooked myself a nice steak to celebrate 🥩 and I enjoyed every second of it! |
Now to get ready for this week… here's what's on my mind. |
You'll never guess why solar power was invented by AT&T back in the mid-'50s. |
It was with wildly modest intentions: Powering payphones in remote areas. |
The first demonstration of a scrappy, cobbled-together "solar panel" generated just enough power to slowly spin a tiny toy Ferris wheel. |
No one (not even AT&T) understood the exponential growth potential of this new technology. |
But last year, solar panels produced 3x the amount of energy used by the entire U.S. back when that Ferris wheel was spinning. |
Because solar has a superpower that no other major source of energy has. |
Energy sources like coal or natural gas have a fixed cost of extraction. |
So even as the amount drilled for or mined rises by orders of magnitude, their prices stay roughly the same — over centuries. |
But solar cells are manufactured, not extracted. |
That means solar becomes much cheaper with every successive cell manufactured — and 70 billion solar cells were manufactured last year. |
So, from 1985–2025, while coal was going nowhere, the price of solar fell off a cliff. The graph below shows the last 45 years of cumulative GW of production vs. price, on a log scale. |
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Nothing but solar is capable of this kind of ongoing price decrease. |
Which is why, within a decade, solar will be the single biggest source of electrical power on planet Earth. |
And that switch is happening much, much faster than even the "experts" have predicted. |
Which means there's still a big investment opportunity at play. |
Everyone Is Wrong About Solar |
For the last quarter-century, some of the most reputable organizations in the world have wildly underestimated solar power growth predictions. |
For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes predictions about solar's growth in its annual World Energy Outlook report. |
In its 2009 report, the IEA predicted that by 2029, installed solar capacity would increase 10x, to 244 GW. |
It hit that milestone in just six years — and has nearly 10x'd AGAIN from there. |
For much of the 2010s, solar deployment beat the IEA's five-year forecasts by 200%+. |
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They constantly revise their forecast upward to try to keep pace with reality. |
In 2021, they said 2023 would bring 218GW of installation.
In 2022, they said 257GW. In 2023, they said 406GW.
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BNEF, a Bloomberg subsidiary, tried the same. Here's how it added to its 2023 forecast, eventually landing on a little over 400GW: |
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Reality? |
447GW deployed — more than twice their original predictions. |
It made exactly the same mistake in 2024. |
The only people who have come close to correct are solar die-hards like Greenpeace, which made a very bold prediction in 2009: nearly 1TW of global solar capacity by 2030. |
The world is already at 2TW… in 2025. |
The trouble with these predictions is that no one has learned the lesson from the last 70 years of solar. The experts are still assuming linear growth. |
But solar is growing exponentially. |
To humans, exponential growth looks like absolutely nothing. Then overnight, it takes over the world. |
From that first Ferris wheel, through the '80s and '90s and early '00s, it looked like solar was barely moving. |
And now that's changing: |
"Solar is on track to fundamentally re-define the way the world supplies energy in the 21st century." – Wood McKenzie |
All at once — this year— solar is becoming the global standard for electricity generation. |
Growth at the Speed of Light |
To understand where solar is actually headed, take past reality and work forward from there. |
Here's how rapidly solar deployment has grown — for the past two decades: |
In 2004, it took one year to install 1 GW of solar power. In 2010, it took one month. In 2016, it took one week. In 2024, it took about 12 hours.
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That's the equivalent of 3.4 football fields of solar installed every minute. |
Here's what that looks like over the past 15 years. Note that the y-axis in the chart below is logarithmic — and solar is breaking out above that trendline. |
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At the current growth rate, solar capacity is doubling about every three years — or growing 10x every decade. |
According to ISES, solar power will surpass nuclear generation in 2026, wind in 2027, dams in 2028, gas in 2030, and coal in 2032. |
And in just 25 years, solar capacity will exceed 75TW — or 6x the world's current electricity generating capacity. |
That will make solar humankind's largest source of primary energy — not just electricity. |
Which means we're closer to AT&T's Ferris wheel in terms of total solar deployment than we are to what's coming. |
"Almost all the demand for solar panels still lies in the future." – The Economist |
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Exponential growth is difficult to see at first — until suddenly, it looks like it was inevitable. |
It's not often the future is this easy to predict. |
Fortunately, it's also not difficult to profit from an exponentially growing technology. |
You just have to recognize the opportunity. |
I've already done some of the legwork for you… |
Identifying a company that is capitalizing on the massive solar growth in the United States. |
Tomorrow, I'll show you how it's on the verge of hitting its "Netflix Moment." |
To Your Success, |
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P.S. The best way to get all the details right away when I have a new trade coming up is to make sure you are a member of my MOBILE ALERTS list. |
All you need to do is whip out your phone and text the word: |
"RAGE" to 1- (888) 487-1534 📲 |
Then, you can be near the first in line when I have a hot new idea that drops (like tomorrow!) |
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