(this is not going to end well)
| | | Don Kaufman here. | Oracle crushed it today. Beat on everything. CEO Safra Catz promised 70% cloud growth next year. Stock ripped 14%. | And I'm more worried than I've been in months. | Look, yesterday we had dramatically positive news that did not lead to a rally. Soft CPI print. Trump basically announced trade deals are done pending approval. Two massive bullish catalysts. | The market just... didn't care. | Now today Oracle delivers the AI story everyone wants to hear, and sure -- tech gets a bounce. But where's the broad market explosion? Where's the euphoria? | We're seeing something I've never seen in decades of trading: markets paralyzed with fear, even when the news is perfect. | Holy crap, how did we even get back up here this morning? | When Smart Money Stops Believing | Here's what really has me spooked -- the VVIX just spiked dramatically while the S&P acts like everything's fine. | | | | And traders don't hedge for nothing. That's the only way to think about it. They don't sit there and hedge for nothing. | Think about it. Yesterday's setup was textbook bullish. Inflation cooling, trade deals supposedly done, today Oracle validates the entire AI thesis. This should have been rocket fuel. | Instead? We're sitting exactly where we were Monday morning. Unchanged for the week. We have not done anything this week. | | | | The TACO Era Is Over | Meanwhile, everyone's still playing the same tired game. "Trump's just posturing on tariffs," they say. "He always backs down." | Wrong. | There will be no "TACO seasoning" with these tariffs. TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out, for those keeping score. But not this time. | The deadline is July 9th. Letters are going out next week to every country without a deal -- which is basically everyone. The EU? Back of the line. | I assure you, this time around those tariffs will be put in place. There will be no taco. If you think it is posturing, you're gonna be mistaken on that. | Question is, how much can that actually damage a marketplace? Right now the market still doesn't believe it. | | Here's The Real Problem | Look, we've actually seen both sides of this. Markets may be a little paralyzed with fear. We also had dramatically positive news yesterday that did not lead to a rally. So we've seen both sides. | When good news stops working and bad news gets shrugged off? That's when you know something's broken. | All you're gonna need is just a little bit more sell side in the marketplace. And I believe the trade is gonna run for the hills. | This is gonna be a dangerous couple of days to hold through. There are tariff threats being thrown left and right. And if you start to break below 6011 this morning -- which we're basically sitting on -- we'll be right back down 30 points. | That's where we sat for most of the night anyway. | What's Next | I'm not saying Oracle's AI story is wrong. But when markets stop believing their own story? When perfect setups get ignored? | That's when volatility explodes. And right now, we've got a market that can't rally on good news and won't sell off on bad news. | That's not strength. That's paralysis. | Mark my words -- when this breaks, it's gonna break hard. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | P.S. My last ever 12-week Mega Mastermind kicked off this morning. You still have a chance to get in. If you want to be positioned for what happens next, you'll need the right skills to do it. Click here to join. | | |
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