sport football: When markets can't relax (and what that means for your money)

Kamis, 29 Mei 2025

When markets can't relax (and what that means for your money)

Don Kaufman here.

Look, I'm gonna tell you something that's probably gonna make your head crack open like a cantaloupe.

Everyone's looking at today's markets - S&P up a whopping 0.1%, Nasdaq doing absolutely nothing - and they're like, "Oh, everything's chill."

Meanwhile, I was sitting with my third cup of coffee this morning thinking, "Are you people blind?"

Because here's the thing that's driving me nuts: Volatility should be melting right now. And it's not.

The Thing That's Making Me Nervous as Hell

Okay, so we had a decent move yesterday, right? Nothing crazy, but enough to spike volatility a bit.

Today comes along, markets are flatter than yesterday's beer, and what should happen?

The VIX should drop like a rock. That's what it always does.

Except it's not doing that.

It's just sitting there like, "Nope, I can't relax." And I gotta tell you something - when volatility can't relax, somebody's about to get run over.

I've been doing this crap for decades, okay? And there's this rule that never breaks: After markets sell off and then go flat, volatility contracts. It's like physics.

But when it doesn't? When it just refuses to back down?

That's volatility saying, "Look out, I'm dangerous this morning."

Holy Crap, This Tariff Thing is a Mess

So get this - the Court of International Trade just told Trump he overstepped on his "reciprocal" tariffs.

Trump's team files an appeal literally immediately. They might run to the Supreme Court as early as tomorrow.

And I'm thinking, "This is exactly what I was afraid of."

Remember what I said about China coming out in the middle of the night and basically telling us to go screw ourselves? Well, we're not there yet, but this court ruling is only gonna make this a larger mess.

But here's the kicker - and this is what's really got me spooked - this isn't a one-time event anymore. This is gonna be this grinding, nation-by-nation, policy confusion nightmare.

Markets hate uncertainty because it makes forecasting impossible. And brother, we just entered uncertainty central.

Oh, and Elon's top lieutenant just bailed from DOGE. This guy runs the Boring Company - he's Musk's right-hand man - and he just walked away.

That's not a resignation. That's a very sketchy sign. DOGE is done.

The Thing About Overnight Moves That Keeps Me Up

You know what really drives me nuts about this whole situation?

Unfortunately the real moves may occur when we are closed.

Think about it. Trump could tweet at 2 AM about China. China could respond at 4 AM with some nasty statement. The Supreme Court could drop a ruling at 6 AM.

You wake up to a market that's gapped 100 points and you're like, What the hell just happened?

No chance to hedge. No chance to get out. No chance to do anything except watch your account get run over.

That's exactly why volatility is staying elevated right now. The risk never sleeps.

What the Smart Money Already Knows

Here's something that'll blow your mind - the options market is basically a crystal ball for this stuff.

If you look at the out-of-the-money puts in the SPX right now, they're telling you exactly what the VIX will be if we crater.

It's not guesswork. It's math.

Those puts are trading at implied volatilities that basically say, "If the S&P drops to 500, the VIX is going to 35."

The market is already pricing in chaos that hasn't happened yet.

And that tells me the smart money - the people who make billions doing this - they're not sleeping well either.

Look, Here's the Deal

I'm not trying to scare anybody here. I'm just telling you what I see.

This isn't about guessing if we go up or down. Hell, I don't know if we're gonna rally or crater tomorrow.

But I do know this: When you have extended policy uncertainty, court battles, and key political figures jumping ship, you don't get nice, clean moves.

You get whipsaws. You get overnight gaps. You get the kind of moves that absolutely destroy accounts.

The volatility futures curve is screaming this at you. The VIX is telling you this. The options are pricing this in.

Markets that can't relax are markets that are about to move.

The Bottom Line (And Why I'm Actually Excited)

Look, the calm you're seeing today? It's not peace. It's like that moment before your teenager tells you they crashed the car.

Volatility is sitting there, coiled and ready, because it knows what most traders don't: This tariff mess is just getting started.

And when it unravels - whether it's tonight, tomorrow, or next week - it's gonna be swift and brutal.

But here's the thing - if you understand volatility, if you know how to read these signals, this is actually opportunity.

Because while everyone else is getting run over by surprise moves, you'll be sitting there going, "Yeah, saw that coming."

The question isn't if volatility is coming back.

The question is whether you'll be ready when it does.

And honestly?

I'm kinda excited to find out.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

P.S. I'm personally using In/Out spreads right now to profit from these exact whipsaws - 70% win rate, capped $100 risk, perfect for this chaos. While everyone else gets destroyed by overnight gaps, I'm collecting consistent wins. Learn the strategy here.