| Swan Dive — May 1, 2025 May Day, GDP Panic & the Greer Pivot Addison Wiggin May Day isn’t just for labor rallies and socialist nostalgia anymore. This year, it coincides with something far more interesting: the early stages of what may be a full-blown economic realignment.
Yesterday, Jamieson Greer — former Trump trade advisor and increasingly the clearest voice behind Trump 2.0’s economic doctrine — framed the first quarter GDP contraction not as a failure, but as a sign of withdrawal. Not from trade. From delusion.
“We can no longer rely on government financing to drive economic growth. We must transition to an economy powered by the private sector — that’s what makes growth sustainable, competitive, and, ultimately, American.”
Forget the Fed. Forget QE. Forget “free lunch” economics. This is Say’s Law meets tariff strategy. Production over consumption. Work over wishful thinking. That, Greer argues, is the pivot.
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📉 GDP Falls, But the Narrative Shifts The Commerce Department says GDP dropped 0.3% in the first quarter — the first contraction since 2022. To hear the mainstream media put it, you’d think the trade towers were attacked again.
Consumer spending slowed. Imports spiked 41% as businesses raced to beat tariffs. Government spending pulled back. Cue media meltdown.
Trump blamed Biden, and with respect, rightfully so. “This will take a while, and has nothing to do with tariffs.” Elon Musk’s sparring buddy Peter Navarro chimed in: “Best negative print I’ve ever seen in my life.”
But the real signal isn’t the print — it’s the policy. No more stimulus. No more crutches. Just gravity. ⚙️ Arizona’s AI Arsenal While Wall Street frets over decimals, America’s AI supply chain just got a new factory. TSMC broke ground on its third Arizona fab this week. The plant will make bleeding-edge 2nm chips for Nvidia, Apple, and Intel.
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang didn’t mince words: “We’re bringing AI infrastructure back to America.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called it the “golden age of American manufacturing.”
Tariffs or not, the private sector is responding. 📈 Inflation Mixed, Labor Weakens The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 3.5% in the first quarter. March PCE came in flat month-over-month — progress, but not enough for Powell to exhale.
Meanwhile, ADP private payrolls missed big, adding just 62,000 jobs. Job openings are down. Hiring managers, like everyone else, are waiting to see how much pain tariffs really bring.
For now, the Fed is stuck — and watching Friday’s jobs report like a sniper on a clock tower. 📺 Media Meltdown, Market Malaise The headlines read like Armageddon.
But maybe — just maybe — this is what an economy looks like when it tries to function without synthetic stimulus. As Greer put it, “We’re ending the addiction to cheap foreign capital and government transfer payments.” It’s not supposed to feel good. It’s supposed to hurt — before it heals. 📆 On This Day in Real Value Investing May 1, 1803 — Thomas Jefferson bought the Louisiana Territory from Napoleon for $15 million. That’s $18 per square mile at the time. Adjusted for inflation? Roughly $448 per square mile.
Today, an average square mile of U.S. farmland costs about $3.57 million. Not bad. Possibly the greatest value investment in American history — paid in real money, for real land, in an economy that hadn’t yet discovered the joys of infinite credit.
– Addison P.S. Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic begins at 11 a.m. EST today. If you’re a paid member, check your inbox for the link at 10:45 a.m. EST.
Today, we’ll be covering the “macro” environment surrounding trade tariffs, the U.S. dollar index, gold and bitcoin. Mark’s the architect of The Bitcoin Capitalist, and he presents a very unique perspective on the evolution of the global monetary system. It promises to be a Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss. See you in a bit!
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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