Today, we're introducing you to an investing legend... We're talking about our friend Whitney Tilson. He's an editor over at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research.
Editor's note: Today, we're introducing you to an investing legend...
We're talking about our friend Whitney Tilson. He's an editor over at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research.
Whitney is also a former $200 million hedge-fund manager who nearly tripled his investors' money. And he's friends with more than a dozen multibillion-dollar hedge-fund managers.
CNBC has even called Whitney "The Prophet." He predicted the dot-com crash and he called the bottom of the 2008 crash on 60 Minutes. So when Whitney makes a big call, it's worth paying attention.
That brings us to today's essay. It published in the May 14 edition of Stansberry's free DailyWealth e-letter. In it, Whitney explains how some of the best "moonshot" investments in recent decades share a common trait. And he shares how he discovered these stocks before they went on to surge higher...
How to Find the Next Apple or Netflix
By Whitney Tilson, editor, Stansberry Research
I discovered Amazon (AMZN) before it became the $2 trillion behemoth it is today...
And I used a similar approach to buy Apple (AAPL) in 2000, Microsoft (MSFT) in 2010, and Netflix (NFLX) in 2012.
These investments helped me grow my former hedge fund from $1 million in assets in 1999 to more than $200 million at its peak.
Today, I'll show you exactly how I spotted two of these future moonshots before they became the mega-cap blue chips we know them as today.
You see, companies like Apple and Netflix share one common trait: They're extremely "hyperscalable"...
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Hyperscalers Leverage Their Loyal Customer Base
Let's look at Apple first. By the time I bought shares at a split-adjusted $0.35 per share, legendary founder and CEO Steve Jobs had returned to the struggling company, which had recently launched its iMac desktop computer. This was years before iPods, iPads, iPhones, AirPods, and the App Store ever existed.
But at the time, I knew Apple was special for a number of reasons:
• It had (and continues to have) a base of fiercely loyal users.
• At the time, 50 million homes in the U.S. (not to mention hundreds of millions of homes overseas) didn't have a personal computer. This played into Apple's strengths of creating products that were easy to set up and user-friendly.
• Apple had a long history of developing stylish, innovative products that differentiated it from its competitors and allowed it to charge a premium price.
• The company's balance sheet was pristine, with a huge cash hoard, little debt, and a "light" business model with low inventories and capital expenditures.
Overall, Apple is the prime example of the "network effect" at work: The value of its products and services increases as more people use them.
Think about the App Store. Rather than hiring hundreds of thousands of developers to create apps, Apple incentivized outside developers to create apps for its users – growing its ecosystem exponentially.
The more users there are to download apps, the more developers want to create apps for those users, and so forth. That's why Apple's App Store revenues have ballooned from $39 billion in 2017 to around $92 billion last year.
That's what I mean when I say these companies are hyperscalable.
A Hyperscalable Model Sparks Revenue Growth
Netflix took its own path to stardom...
Around the turn of the century, it had just 400,000 subscribers. Today, that number has exploded to nearly 302 million... a staggering 75,558% increase. Take a look...
In the process, Netflix put Blockbuster Video out of business entirely. But Netflix didn't take a smooth ride up.
In an ill-fated strategy, the company separated out its DVD-by-mail business from its streaming business and gave it a new name – Qwikster – forcing people to subscribe to it separately.
Netflix customers revolted... The company lost 800,000 subscribers in that quarter alone. And in less than a month, then-CEO Reed Hastings walked back the decision.
But the damage was done. Netflix went from growing 30% year over year to just above 10% for three quarters. Its stock price fell from $43 per share to less than $10 per share.
I was famously short Netflix at the time. I even published an article titled "Why We're Short Netflix"...
That prompted Hastings to publish an article of his own, titled "Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now."
He and I connected through e-mail, and he invited me to brunch at his house in California. There, he helped me realize I was looking at Netflix with a completely wrong lens...
I was looking at how many people were paying $8 per month and trying to figure out how much each subscriber was worth. Instead, Hastings explained that Netflix's streaming platform was already built... and it was now enjoying the network effect as more and more people were using it.
Because Netflix paid a fixed amount for its content, it cost the company virtually nothing to add a new subscriber. Each new subscription was almost pure profit.
I immediately closed my short and, after the stock fell sharply, backed up the truck on Netflix shares. I went on CNBC the exact day Netflix bottomed following its stock's crash in 2011 and predicted it would be the coming decade's Amazon, whose shares were up 1,000% over the prior decade.
It turns out I was far too conservative... NFLX shares rose 90-fold over the next nine years.
Now, take a look at the following chart...
As you can see, this hyperscalable model has led to massive revenue growth for both companies over the past several years...
This has, in turn, led to massive returns for shareholders over the same period...
Everyone wishes they had the opportunity to invest in these stocks back then. But I believe that right now, investors have a similar opportunity...
People who get into the right stocks today will look back at this year's sell-off as one of the best things that ever happened to their portfolio.
Good investing,
Whitney Tilson
Editor's note: Next Wednesday, May 21, Whitney is stepping forward to share a big prediction with another big investing legend...
It's not about a dollar crisis, more tariffs, or anything like that. Instead, it's about a new artificial-intelligence ("AI") "super chip" that has the potential to shake up the entire AI industry. At the same time, these investing legends also say that the stocks of little-known companies that adopt this chip could lead to dot-com-like gains.
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Discretionary
+8.55%
Information Technology
+8.49%
Energy
+5.83%
Industrials
+4.81%
Communication
+3.32%
Financial
+3.01%
Materials
+2.49%
Utilities
-1.8%
Real Estate
-1.97%
Consumer Staples
-2.42%
Health Care
-4.87%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Mining Services
8
17
8
Over the past 6 months, the Mining subsector (XME) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -8.26%. Its Power Bar ratio which measures future potential is Neutral, with an equal number of Bullish and Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #13 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 3 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
CENX
Century Aluminum Com
MP
MP Materials Corp.
MTRN
Materion Corporation
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
SMCI
+15.71%
ENPH
+5.79%
IP
+4.83%
AMD
+4.68%
NVDA
+4.16%
Losers
TECH
-7.27%
IQV
-5.88%
RVTY
-5.88%
MRNA
-5.77%
ABBV
-5.62%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
DT Dynatrace, Inc.
Q4
$0.33
Beat by $0.03
STE STERIS plc
Q4
$2.74
Beat by $0.14
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc.
Q3
$0.96
Beat by $0.04
* * * *
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