 | ||||
| ||||
Did you know that, since its inception, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset class worldwide? In fact, at its current $1.87 trillion valuation, Bitcoin has even surpassed Alphabet (formerly Google) to become the world's fifth largest asset only behind Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and gold! However, the recent market tariff turmoil resulted in a "risk-off" environment and a 30% pullback from the all-time high of $109k achieved last year. Bitcoin Decouples One of the long-term bearish arguments against Bitcoin is that it is just another "risk-on" asset. Historically, you may have observed that Bitcoin has acted like a leveraged Nasdaq product, dramatically outperforming in equity bull markets and underperforming in bear markets. However, this week, Bitcoin and the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) went a long way in disproving that. Despite the carnage in equities early in the week, Bitcoin rose 3%, regaining its 50-day moving average. The relative strength in the world's largest cryptocurrency stood out like a sore thumb Monday, but it's not just a one-day occurrence; it is becoming a trend. While the Nasdaq and the major US equity indexes are stuck below their long-term 200-day moving averages, Bitcoin is above its mid-term 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is nearly flat, while the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) are each down double digits. Bitcoin is a Safe-Haven Against Tariffs & Fiat Mayhem With China and the United States currently stuck in the middle of a nasty and escalating trade war, there is a plethora of macroeconomic uncertainty. Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin has unique and powerful attributes, including scarcity, decentralization, and global accessibility. As trade wars press on, international investors will likely park some of their funds in Bitcoin, leveraging the unique asset as an escape hatch. Liquidity is King In over two decades of investing experience, I have learned that liquidity is king on Wall Street. But don't just take it from me, take it from legendary billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller: Druckenmiller teaches that: "Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve board…focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets." Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently portrayed a "Hawkish" tone, signaling that he was not ready to cut interest rates and was concerned about the potential for tariff-induced inflation. But I always teach that it's important that investors like you should pay attention to what the Fed is likely to do, instead of blindly listening to its rhetoric. In other words, you should rely on what the market is pricing in, because, after all, it represents real-time, real money odds. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, an indicator that tracks the latest odds of a FOMC rate move, suggests that multiple interest rate cuts will occur in 2025 – a bullish sign for assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is Correlated to the Money Supply However, it's not enough to focus only on US liquidity. Remember, Bitcoin is an international asset. Thus, we must focus on global liquidity. Global M2 measures the world's money supply or the different forms of liquid assets that can be quickly turned to cash. Bitcoin exhibits a shockingly high correlation when compared to M2 (with a 60-to-90-day lag). With central banks primed to print money and global M2 set to soar, Bitcoin should follow suit. Bitcoin's Bullish Seasonality Period Historical seasonality patterns have been extremely accurate for Bitcoin in recent years. The seasonality roadmap suggests that Bitcoin should rally into August before retreating. | ||||
| ||||
| Bitcoin Adoption Among Public Companies MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder Michael Saylor and his company received a plethora of flack when it added Bitcoin to its balance sheet and adopted a "Bitcoin Reserve Strategy." That said, the strategy has paid off – big time. MSTR shares are up more than 2,000% over the past five years, dwarfing the 107.9% returns of the S&P 500 Index. While MSTR still has its fair share of skeptics, it has not stopped other public companies like GameStop (GME), Semler Scientific (SMLR), and Rumble (RUM) from adopting a Bitcoin strategy of their own. GME and others that have just begun accumulating BTC, are likely to accumulate more over time, helping to drive up the price. Nation-State Adoption Isn't it amazing what price appreciation can do for an asset? Bitcoin has transformed from an obscure, often scoffed at, cryptocurrency mainly used for nefarious activity. However, with dark web websites like "The Silk Road" shutdown, Bitcoin is still used today for international remittances and "digital gold," and nation states are noticing. El Salvador, a tiny Latin American country, became the first to adopt Bitcoin. In 2021, President Nayib Bukele announced a bill that El Salvador would accept Bitcoin as legal tender. Today, merchants across the country accept Bitcoin, and El Salvador has made millions off its Bitcoin purchases. Fast forward to 2025, and the United States is beginning to follow suit. In March, President Donald Trump established a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." That means that instead of selling the hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins the government has seized over the years (the US government holds the most Bitcoin worldwide), the US government will keep all of its Bitcoin for the long term. In addition, the pro-crypto policies are unlikely to stop there. For instance, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick owns hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Paul Atkins, the new Securities and Exchange Commission Chair, was involved in numerous crypto advocacy ventures before being sworn in by the Trump administration this week. Relative Price Strength During bear markets, the best thing investors can do is look for relative price strength. A good metaphor for this is to look for the tennis balls vs. the eggs, or those assets that bounce instead of break during market volatility and mayhem. These assets are likely to perform best when the dust settles. While the major market indices and the vast majority of stocks are below their 200-day moving averages, Bitcoin remains above it – a subtle yet powerful sign of relative strength. Bitcoin Technical Analysis Typically, in the study of technical analysis, the more signals a technician observes, the higher the probability of being correct. On Wall Street, we call multiple signals that align a confluence. Currently, Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) have a confluence of four distinct signals:
Bitcoin Bottom Line Despite a recent pullback, Bitcoin has demonstrated strength by decoupling from traditional "risk-on" assets during market turmoil, supported by factors like its scarcity, decentralization, increasing global liquidity, historical seasonality, growing adoption by public companies and even nation-states like the US with its new "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." More Ways to Take Advantage of This Market Just apply tried and true methods that work to find the best stocks. For example, did you know that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy have beaten the market in 29 of the last 37 years (a 78% win ratio), with an average annual return of more than 24% per year? That's more than 2 x the S&P, including 4 bear markets and 4 recessions. And consistently beating the market year after year can add up to a lot more than just two times the returns. It also killed in 1995 with a 52.6% gain; 1996 with 40.9%; 1997 with 43.9%; 1998 with 19.5%; and 1999 with 45.9%. It was also up in 2000 by 14.3% while the S&P was down. Did you also know that stocks in the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperform those in the bottom 50% by a factor of 2 to 1? There's a reason why they say that half of a stock's price movement can be attributed to the group that it's in. Because it's true! Those two things will give any investor a huge probability of success and put you well on your way to beating the market. But you're not there yet, as those two items alone will only narrow down a field of 10,000 stocks to the top 100 or so. Way too many to trade at once. So, the next step is to get that list down to a smaller, actionable list of stocks that you can buy. And one of the best ways to do that is to see what stocks the pros, who use these methods, are picking. Whether you're a growth investor, or a value investor, prefer fast-paced momentum stocks, or mature dividend-paying income stocks, there are certain rules the experts follow to maximize their gains. This applies to large-caps and small-caps, biotech and high-tech, ETFs, stocks under $10, stocks about to surprise, even options, and everything in between. Regardless of which one fits your personal style of trade, just be sure you're following proven profitable methods and strategies that work, from experts who have demonstrated their ability to beat the market. The best part about these strategies and stock picks (aside from the returns), is that all of the hard work is done for you. There's no guesswork involved. Just follow the experts and start confidently getting into better stocks on your very next trade. Zacks' Best Picks for Today Here's an easy way to find them. Today, I'm pleased to offer you full 30-day, real-time access to every stock and ETF we're recommending as part of our celebrated Zacks Ultimate service. Our expert-led recommendation services are designed to highlight the most promising stocks on the market, including the hottest AI firms, insider trades (the legal kind), home run moves, stocks under $10, earnings surprise stocks, and much more. The total cost is only $1, and there's no obligation to spend a cent more. This includes the real-time buy and sell recommendations, along with expert market insights from ALL of Zacks' private portfolio services. While future success isn't guaranteed, Zacks Ultimate members recently had opportunities to close gains of +627.5%, +812.0%, +1,096.8% and even +1,340.0%.¹ Free Bonus: You'll also receive our Special Report, Zacks Ultimate Four. These stocks are handpicked by experts. Each has strong fundamentals and exceptional growth potential. They're ideally suited to soar through Q2 and far beyond. Don't wait – this opportunity ends at midnight Sunday, April 27. Gain Zacks Ultimate Access and Our Bonus Ultimate Four Report Right Now for Just $1 » All the best,
Andrew has more than two decades of investing experience and believes in combining technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and strict risk management. He is the editor of our Technology Innovators portfolio and briefs you on the latest tech developments as well as other lucrative opportunities. Get started with Zacks Ultimate and our Ultimate Four report before this weekend's deadline. | ||||
 | ||||
| ¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position. Access grants you a comprehensive list of all open and closed trades. This free resource is being sent by Zacks.com. We look for investment resources and inform you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms of Service". https://www.zacks.com/terms_of_service Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or U.S. investment adviser or investment bank. The Zacks #1 Rank Performance covers the period beginning on January 1, 1988 through March 3, 2025. The performance is the equal weighted performance of a hypothetical portfolio consisting of stocks with a Zacks Rank of #1 that was rebalanced monthly from January 1988 through December 2013 and weekly from 12/31/13 through Monday's open on March 3, 2025. For each stock with a Zacks Rank #1 at the beginning of the month, the total return during the month was calculated as the % change in the price of the stock from the closing price of the prior month to the closing price of the current month plus any dividends received during the month. The monthly individual stock returns were then averaged to determine the portfolio return for the month. For each stock with a Zacks Rank #1 at the beginning of the week, the total return during the week was calculated as the % change in the price of the stock from the opening price for the week to the opening price of the next week plus any dividends received during the week. The weekly individual stock returns were then averaged to determine the portfolio return for the week. If no month-end price or week end open price was available for a stock, it was not included in the portfolio return for the month or the week. The monthly and weekly returns were compounded to arrive at the annual returns. The annualized return is the annual return that, had it been achieved in each year or portion of a year, would have compounded to create the total return over the full time period. These returns are based on the list of Zacks Rank #1 Stocks that was available to clients of Zacks as of the beginning of the month, when returns were calculated monthly, or as of the beginning of the week when returns were calculated weekly. These returns are higher than the returns an investor could achieve investing real money in a portfolio of Zacks Rank #1 stocks because the returns of the hypothetical Zacks Rank #1 portfolio exclude a number of costs, including commissions incurred for trading, the average bid ask spread, the price impact of the trading and, prior to 2013, in those months when the end of the month fell on Friday, Saturday or Sunday, the overnight return from the month end close to the open on the next trading day. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance_disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Zacks Emails Zacks Investment Research |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar