| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Monday April 14, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 14, 2025 Gold's Verdict on the Paper Mirage From the desk of Addison Wiggin
Sometimes, it’s not what they say — it’s how fast they scramble to say it.
Over the weekend, a curious twist in the tariff saga gave tech stocks a second wind.
Smartphones, superchips, and most of what makes your devices tick got what looked like a last-minute exemption from the latest wave of tariffs.
Apple futures spiked 6% on the news — no small thing after a week that saw tech lick its wounds.
But let’s not call it an “exemption,” exactly. According to a string of increasingly anxious Trump administration spokesmen — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Jameison Greer among them — this wasn’t a reprieve; it was a reshuffle.
These items weren’t removed from tariff risk; they were simply moved from the “trade war” bucket to the “national security” bucket.
A bit of bureaucratic sleight of hand designed to buy time — time, we’re told, for negotiators to “convince” supply chains to pack their bags and come home to the good ol’ U.S. of A.  Social media’s having a field day with Trump Tariff memes For now, markets aren’t trading on clarity — it’s confusion, delay, and hope. And in that fog, something far more telling happened. 📈 Markets Had Themselves a Week With tariffs paused and optimism recycled, the major indexes staged a rip-roaring rally. The S&P 500 ended the week up 6%, the Nasdaq galloped ahead 7%, and even the old-school Dow tacked on 4%. Overall, it meant the best weekly close since late 2023.
At the same time, the dollar index slumped 3%, while silver soared nearly 10%.
And gold? Gold did what it always does when trust wavers. It surged 7% in three days — the best run in five years. Year-to-date, it’s up 23%. Over the past 12 months? 38%. Can I get an “amen”?
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🧠 The Fear Index Continues to Flash Red Amid the late week fist pumping on Wall Street, the mood beneath the surface is anything but calm.  The CNN Fear & Greed Index is still blinking “Extreme Fear,” although 19 is a much better read than last Monday’s record-low 4.
When gold and silver post double-digit gains in a single week, it’s not diversification — it’s defense. Wall Street may be briefly partying, but Main Street is double-checking the locks, including this dramatic detail… 🏚️ Consumer Sentiment: Worse Than 2008 The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in March — lower than during every U.S. recession of the past 50 years.  Only June 2022 posted a lower reading, back when inflation was peaking at 9.1%. Current conditions fell to 56.5, while expectations about the economy dropped to 47.2 — levels not seen since the misery index days of May 1980.
Despite the market’s sugar high, consumers don’t feel good. Inflation expectations are rising again, and Americans are finding out the hard way that groceries, rent, and credit card bills don’t care about CPI optimism. 💸 And yet, Inflation is Down and the Deficit Shrank! It’s too early for the Trump team to claim victory, but in a rare bit of positive news, Friday’s data showed the U.S. budget deficit narrowed in March, to $161 billion, down $76 billion from the same time last year. It’s the lowest March deficit in five years.
Good news, sure — but let’s not lose the forest for a slightly less scorched tree. The funding gap for the first half of fiscal 2025 still ranks as the second-worst on record.
The bonfire’s still blazing… we just tossed on a slightly smaller log this time. 🪙 Gold Is Not a Trend. It’s a Judgment. What we’re watching isn’t just a breakout — it’s a verdict. A 3% drop in the dollar. A 7% surge in gold.
Gold is doing what gold always does when the foundation beneath fiat currency starts to wobble: it shines. This isn’t about rates, or Fed minutes, or dot plots. This is about trust — or the lack of it.
The real story this week isn’t that stocks bounced. It’s that gold moved faster. More decisively. More meaningfully. In a world of synthetic assets and synthetic optimism, reality is still priced in ounces. Addison P.S. Please mark your calendar: Thursday, April 17 at 11 a.m., we’ll be hosting Grey Swan Live! for paid members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. This week, we’ll dig into the gold run, the currency rumbles behind it, the bizarre movements in crypto, and what Trump’s tariff regime could really mean for the fate of the U.S. dollar.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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