| Swan Dive — April 24, 2025 From Beige Book to Black Hole Addison Wiggin Not since the early days of the US-China trade war in 2018-19 have American businesses been so vocal about tariffs. And this time, they’ve got more than twice as much to say.
That’s one way to read the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book, released yesterday, which offers a periodic gut check from the Fed’s 12 districts. The word “tariff” appears 107 times in the April edition — up from a peak of 51 back in 2018. That’s not a subtle signal.
President Trump insists his tariffs won’t reignite inflation or trigger a recession. But the anecdotal evidence paints a more worrisome picture. Businesses are frozen in place. Supply chains are strained. Price pressures are rising. And economic activity is starting to seize.
Mixed messages out of the White House — how long will this last? How deep will it go? — are feeding the very uncertainty that leads to downturns. 📉 Forward Guidance: “Hmn, Well…” Front-loading orders and short-term bursts of demand are further confounding the tariff policy confusion. Business concerns haven’t been this foreshadowed since before the pandemic… during Trump’s first trade war-lite.  Beneath the surface, the Fed’s district surveys reveal that tariffs are a tax by another name. They raise costs. They choke hiring. They crimp investment. A controlled burn, maybe — but one that’s singeing the edges of the broader economy.
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🧱 The Wrecking Ball That Won’t Swing In a rare moment of global reassurance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped in this week to calm fears that Washington was walking away from its postwar commitments. After the U.S. pulled out of the WHO, shuttered USAID, and ghosted the G20, it was fair to ask whether the IMF and World Bank were next on the chopping block.
Bessent’s answer: not this time. “The IMF and World Bank serve critical roles,” he said, pledging U.S. support — with conditions. And in case anyone was wondering whether America still wants to be the anchor of the global financial system, Bessent offered this: “I’m not sure anyone else wants the job.” A pause, not a pivot. But for allies and creditors alike, it was enough to breathe easier — at least for now. 🎭 Klaus Schwab Gets A Personal Reset Meanwhile, in a plot twist straight out of a Bond villain blooper reel, Klaus Schwab was ousted as chairman by the board of the World Economic Forum (WEF) following accusations of financial misconduct, personal enrichment, and staff abuse.
The move only confirms what we’ve suspected all along of Schwab and his globalist, virtue-signaling cabal. And like all movements, including the climate kind, the leaders eventually turn on each other.
Cheers to the whistleblower whose letter triggered an emergency Easter Sunday board meeting. The “Great Reset” author had planned to remain in power and grift until 2027. 📉 Bonds Weaken and Gold Glows this Week Even with markets up in volatile trading this week, China says there are no trade talks scheduled, and Bessent himself cast doubt on a quick resolution to the current trade war.
Overnight U.S. futures dipped slightly, and the dollar weakened. Gold was the big tell, as it jumped 1.5%.
Meanwhile, Jefferies’ Christopher Wood warned that the market is well past its prime, and Deutsche Bank slashed its S&P 500 target, citing long-term damage from tariff policies.
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, posted its biggest quarterly loss in 18 months — blaming the tech wreck and its exposure to U.S. markets.  Bloomberg’s John Authers warns that until tariff uncertainty is removed, investors will treat every uptick as a chance to run, not reload. 🐘 Tariff Tango 2025 As of this morning, not a single country has inked a definitive tariff deal with the Trump administration — though the diplomatic speed-dating is in full swing. Yesterday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said there are 18 negotiations active at the moment.
Over 75 nations have been granted a 90-day reprieve from new levies, a tactical pause dressed up as magnanimity while Team Trump sharpens its reciprocity doctrine. The EU, slapped with a 10% baseline tariff, has kicked the can to July 14, Bastille Day, before deciding whether to retaliate or roll over.
The real firecracker, of course, is China. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods currently stand at 145%, with Beijing retaliating at 125% — a tit-for-tat that makes the Smoot-Hawley Act look like a polite misunderstanding. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a looming “big deal” with China, dangling a possible 50–65% rollback on select goods. 🍟 Earnings Watch: Alphabet, Intel, Pepsi, P&G, and, ahem, Trumpcoin It’s a full earnings calendar today. PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, and American Airlines report before the bell, while Alphabet and Intel take the mic after hours.
Expect volatility. The numbers may look fine, as they report how companies stood before Liberation Day, but with tariffs on the docket, “guidance” is the real tell — especially with advertising, chips, and consumer goods caught in the tariff vortex.
Meanwhile, one crypto is soaring… President Trump announced he will host an “intimate private dinner” with the top 220 holders of the Trump memecoin on May 22 at Mar-a-lago.
On the menu? Policy talk, digital asset vision… and likely a lot of prime rib. The future of U.S. monetary policy might not be on the blockchain yet — but no doubt the campaign donations are already minted.
– Addison P.S.: Our next members-only Grey Swan Live! is today at 11 a.m. ET. We’ll be analyzing the commodity space as a whole with Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor Shad Marquitz.
We’ll cover the gamut – gold, natural gas, uranium, thorium, rare earths – you name it. Today, commodities are intermingled with the economy, interest rates, a potential debt crisis, AI power needs and infrastructure spending… It’s a can’t-miss call for members. We’ll see you then.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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