sport football: 📊 Who Wins From A TikTok Ban?

January 12, 2025 | Read Online

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Happy Sunday!

The market had a rocky week, shaken by news that cast doubt on the future of rate cuts.

On Wednesday, Fed officials expressed uncertainty about inflation, citing impacts from potential immigration and trade policy changes.

They signaled a more cautious approach to rate cuts moving forward.

Then, on Friday, a blowout jobs report added to the uncertainty.

U.S. payrolls surged by 256,000 in December, far exceeding the 155,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.

Treasury yields spiked on the report, signaling traders' belief that the Fed is less likely to cut rates this year.

Markets were also closed Thursday in observance of the passing of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, making it a shortened four-day trading week.

Some key data bites from this week that you should know:

Disney acquired 70% of Fubo, aims to merge it with Hulu+ Live TV.
Getty Images is buying Shutterstock to create a $3.7B stock-image company.
Constellation Energy is close to acquiring power producer Calpine for $30B.
Donald Trump has announced a $20B plan to build new data centers in the US.
AI startup Anthropic is raising $2B at a $60B valuation.
AI startups made up 46% of all US VC fundraising in 2024.
Squid Game Season 2 reached 126.2M views in 11 days on Netflix.
Jensen Huang said viable quantum computing was 20 years away.
Italy plans a $1.6B Starlink deal for secure government internet.
Damages from LA fires are estimated to reach up to $57B.
AI is expected to replace 200,000 jobs at global banks.
694 US companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024, a 14-year high.
Paychex will acquire Paycor HCM in a roughly $4.1B deal.

In today's newsletter:

🎉 Potential IPOs In 2025
🏆 Best Investors In Congress
🏋️‍♀️ A Few Stocks Drive The Market
🐶 2025 Dogs Of The Dow
⛔️ Who Wins From A TikTok Ban?

Let's jump right in.

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2024 was a slow year for IPOs, but 2025 is shaping up to be different.

Here are nine companies that might go public this year, according to sources like Fast, Kiplinger, and US News.

It's all speculation for now, but some are making serious strides toward an IPO.

Stronger-than-expected economic conditions, as we've seen, could open the door for more companies to take the leap.

Some members of Congress absolutely destroyed the S&P 500 in 2024, based on research from Unusual Whales.

It's important to note that these performances are estimates based on financial disclosures, and while Unusual Whales considers them conservative, they may not fully reflect precise results due to data limitations.

David Rouzer takes the top spot this year, despite not being an active trader.

His performance is driven by holdings he purchased a few years ago, such as Nvidia and MasterCard.
On the other hand, members like Pelosi achieved strong returns through more active trading.

Larry Bucshon's nearly 100% portfolio return primarily reflects his position in Trump Media and Technology Group, though he's only break-even on that stock after this year.

Many members have outperformed the S&P 500 thanks to their focus on tech and financials.

Index funds are often praised for their diversification, but there's a catch—the U.S. stock market has never been more concentrated.

In the S&P 500, the top 5 stocks make up 27.3% of the index.

The top 10? A record-breaking 37.3%.
Even more striking, according to S&P Dow Jones analyst Howard Silverblatt, just 26 stocks now account for half the index's total value.

And it's not just the S&P 500.

The top 5 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 make up 36.8%, while in the Dow Jones, it's 32.7%.

Diversified? Maybe not as much as most think.

Everyone loves puppies, right? Well, maybe not these dogs.

The Dogs of the Dow strategy involves buying the 10 highest dividend-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the start of each year.

It's popular among some investors for its focus on established companies with relatively strong cash flows.
The idea is to buy companies facing short-term challenges, collect dividends, and hope for a turnaround.

But performance has been somewhat underwhelming.

According to Investopedia, from 2013 to 2023, the Dogs of the Dow delivered a trailing total return of 10.02%, lagging the Dow Jones at 11.48%.
The gap widened from 2018 to 2023, with returns of 5.29% for the Dogs compared to 8.39% for the broader index.

The end of TikTok in the U.S. may be near.

The app faces a potential shutdown on January 19th if the Supreme Court upholds a law requiring its sale by its parent company, with the Supreme Court inclined to do so, per the AP.

With 170M U.S. users, TikTok has become one of the most popular social media platforms in the country.

Does this mean it'll vanish from your phone? Not exactly.

The app would be removed from app stores, preventing updates and gradually degrading performance over time.

The Supreme Court's final decision is expected in the coming days.

If TikTok gets banned, advertisers will likely shift their dollars to other platforms, boosting competitors in the space.

🏷️ Valuation Gap. Stocks are nearing their most overvalued levels against corporate credit and Treasuries in about two decades - BB

🐷 Equity Entry. Private equity is hoping to lobby Trump to tap into peoples' retirement accounts - FT

🆕 Board Change. Dana White has been elected to Meta's board of directors - META

✏️ Policy Shift. Meta is ending its fact checking program, shifting to community notes, and lifting restrictions on several topics - META

📉 Flutter Fumbles. Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel's parent company, lowered its outlook after an NFL season dominated by favorite wins - IV

💥 Chaos Bet. Ex-hedge fund manager who made billions in 2008 is raising $250M to bet on market volatility - BB

🍟 McValue Launch. McDonald's unveiled its new McValue menu - MCD

🛩️ Rich Escapade. Wealth Managers are moving to this South American Beach Haven - BB

🍺 Label Shock. Alcohol stocks tanked after US surgeon general suggested adding a cancer warning label - YF

🇨🇦 Trudeau Resigns. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation - AP

Courtesy of our partner EarningsHub—I may earn a commission if you upgrade.

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings Week of January 13th, 2025:

Here's what I will be watching this week:

Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase & Co $JPM, Goldman Sachs $GS, BlackRock $BLK, Citi $C, Wells Fargo $WFC, Bank of New York Mellon $BK
Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM, UnitedHealth Group $UNH, Bank of America $BAC, Morgan Stanley $MS, US Bancorp $USB
Friday: Schlumberger $SLB, Fastenal $FAST, Truist Financial $TFC

View Full Calendar Here!

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Major Trades Published 1/6 - 1/10. Trades may be those of family members. [Source: 2iQ]

Buys

Shelley Moore Capito (R)
- Company: Broadcom ($AVGO)
  - Amount Purchased: $1K - $15K
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
- Company: Bitcoin ($BTC)
  - Amount Purchased: $1K - $15K
- Company: Solana ($SOL)
  - Amount Purchased: $1K - $15K
- Company: Ripple ($XRP)
  - Amount Purchased: $1K - $15K

Sells

Virginia Foxx (R)
- Company: AT&T ($T)
  - Amount Sold: $50K - $100K
- Company: Pembina Pipeline Corp ($PBA)
  - Amount Sold: $50K - $100K
- Company: Via Renewables ($VIA)
  - Amount Sold: $50K - $100K
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
- Company: Nvidia ($NVDA)
  - Amount Sold: $15K - $50K
- Company: Lam Research ($LRCX)
  - Amount Sold: $15K - $50K
- Company: Apple ($AAPL)
  - Amount Sold: $15K - $50K

Major Trades Published 1/6 - 1/10

Buys

Fedex Corp ($FDX)
- Insider: John Dietrich (EVP Chief Financial Officer)
  - # of Shares Purchased: 1,000
  - $ Amount: $273,980
  - SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

Tesla ($TSLA)
- Insider: Kathleen Wilson-Thompson (Director)
  - # of Shares Sold: 100,000
  - $ Amount: $41,162,799
  - SEC Forms: [1]
Dick's Sporting Goods ($DKS)
- Insider: Edward Stack (Executive Chairman)
  - # of Shares Sold: 160,600
  - $ Amount: $36,817,230
  - SEC Forms: [1]
Palo Alto Networks ($PANW)
- Insider: Nikesh Arora (CEO)
  - # of Shares Sold: 176,242
  - $ Amount: $31,730,749
  - SEC Forms: [1]

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