Stocks Closed Mostly Lower On First Day Of 2025, Can Stocks Put In Another Double-Digit Performance In New Year?

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Stocks Closed Mostly Lower On First Day Of 2025, Can Stocks Put In Another Double-Digit Performance In New Year?

	Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
	Stocks Closed Mostly Lower On First Day Of 2025, Can Stocks Put In Another Double-Digit Performance In New Year? Stocks closed mostly lower on the inaugural trading day of 2025. Actually, stocks started off strong with all of the indexes up solidly. But by early afternoon those gains turned into losses. Although, they came back from their worst levels by day's end to only finish with modest losses. And the small-cap Russell 2000 eked out a small gain. I wouldn't read too much into yesterday's trading. In fact, I wouldn't read anything into it other than the first day of the trading year is behind us. Yesterday's MBA Mortgage Applications report showed the composite index down -12.6% w/w with purchases off -6.8% and refi's down -23.4%. Weekly Jobless Claims fell -9,000 to 211,000 vs. the consensus for 225K. The 4-week moving average declined to 223.25K from 226.75K. The PMI Manufacturing Index came in at 49.4, down a bit from last month's 49.7, but up vs. the consensus for 48.3. And Construction Spending was flat (0.0%) m/m vs. last month's 0.5% and views for 0.3%. On a y/y basis it was up 3.0% vs. last month's 3.9% pace. Today we'll get Motor Vehicle Sales and the ISM Manufacturing Index. We'll also hear from Fed policymakers Thomas Barkin and Mary Daley as they speak at their respective engagements. The report the market is really looking forward to, however, is next Friday's (1/10) Employment Situation report. That will be the first major economic report of 2025. Given the Fed's dual mandate of price stability (low inflation) and maximum employment, the jobs report is an important piece of data in helping to shape the Fed's monetary policy. Once that's behind us, we'll get the next PPI and CPI inflation reports the following week on Tuesday, January 14 and Wednesday, January 15. The new thing the market will soon obsess about is the new administration's tariffs. What will they look like? Who will get them? And what will that ultimately mean for the U.S economy? The debate is split on whether it will be inflationary or not. Either way, just know that will be talked about quite a bit in the new year. Trading might still be lighter than usual today. But things should quickly get back to normal early next week. In the meantime, there are 250 trading days in 2025. Today is day 2. Be sure to make every day count this year. Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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