Where will Trump tariffs come in? … strong market breadth … the market’s ebb-and-flow in 2025 … is a new Bitcoin price surge coming? … altcoin ETF filings soar President Trump’s promised 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico weren’t part of his flurry of executive orders on Day 1. When asked about them, Trump told reporters, “I think we’ll do it Feb. 1.” The scope of Trump’s prospective tariffs…which could have a material impact on corporate earnings…which could weigh on the performance of your portfolio…are one of the biggest market overhangs today. But our technology expert Luke Lango believes tariff threats will be more bark than bite. Let’s jump to his Daily Notes from Innovation Investor earlier this week: There were promises from the Trump team that big tariffs were coming on Day One. But no such tariffs were implemented or even announced [on Tuesday] … The market is taking the lack of action on tariffs as a sign that the early “leaks” about Trump’s trade policy were right — he is planning to go “light” on tariffs. We think that’s the right takeaway. In our view, Trump will use tariffs as a trade negotiation tactic to further his other initiatives, like stronger border protections and reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. As such, we think most of his tariff talk will stay just that — talk — and that very little of it will turn into action. Where it does turn into action, we expect the action to be mundane. In other words, we don’t think big tariffs are coming. In the absence of big tariffs, the stock market is poised to rip higher in 2025 on the back of deregulation, continued AI optimism, and a rebound in consumer and business sentiment. “Rip higher” is exactly what we’ve enjoyed over the last few days. Better still, the gains have been widespread. As you can see below, earlier this week marked the sixth consecutive day that more than two-thirds of stocks in the S&P climbed – the first time this has happened in more than 30 years. 
Source: @FrankCappelleri But let’s pullback... While “rip higher” is Luke’s 2025 forecast, we should be clear about what this means. | Recommended Link | | | | On February 3, 2025, Luke Lango is releasing a brand-new model portfolio of what he considers the best stocks to own for February. This is the same research which helped his readers make 115% in under 60 days. But you must act now before he closes this offer for good. Click here. |  | | The back-and-forth “dance” of 2025 While Luke is bullish on 2025, he cautions investors against expecting a smooth ride. He explained this in his Tuesday issue of Breakout Trader, which is his trading service based on “stage analysis.” For newer Digest readers, stage analysis is an analytical framework that categorizes a stock's price movement into four stages – consolidation (sideways at a bottom), breakout (up), distribution (sideways at a top), and downtrend (down) – helping investors identify the optimal times to buy, hold, or sell. As to what Luke sees coming for the markets, it’s a back-and-forth between market advances based on hopes of strong, healthy growth, and market pullbacks stemming from fears of inflation and its negative ripple effects. Here’s his roadmap for this dance over the next few months: The stage feels set for growth hopes to rise and inflation fears to ease over the next few weeks. As they do, stocks should push higher. The dynamic will change at some point, likely in late February or early March. Growth hopes will fade. Inflation fears will rise. At that point, stocks will stumble. But we believe that sometime after that, encouraging data will return, inflation fears will ebb, and we’ll climb once again. That will be our dance all year long on Wall Street. We’ll take two steps forward, rallying on pro-growth hopes. Then, we’ll take one step back, dropping on reinflation fears. This will be helpful to remember when stocks inevitably give back some of their recent gains. By the way, congratulations to Breakout Trader subscribers. They just had a banner week for trade returns. Here’s Luke from Tuesday’s issue: It was an unbelievable week for our portfolio. In fact, this could be the strongest week since we launched Breakout Trader. Only one position pulled back. Every other trade was up – and not just by a little. Seven of our [18] trades popped double digits. And [three of our trades] surged more than 20%. That’s impressive for just one week of market performance. Congrats again. The next big clue for the market’s 2025 dance comes a week from Friday. That’s when we’ll get the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. If it comes in soft, look for a fresh hope-fueled market surge. We’ll keep you updated. But stocks aren’t the only asset class that Luke sees climbing over the coming weeks As Trump settles back into the White House, Luke believes crypto is poised for a new rally. From his Tuesday issue of Crypto Trader. This is the crypto equivalent of Breakout Trader that we just highlighted: Donald Trump has promised to be a pro-crypto president. His appointments so far – such as a pro-crypto SEC Chair – suggest he intends to live up to that promise. He will therefore be the first pro-crypto president we’ve ever had, and in so doing, he will likely standardize nationwide crypto acceptance in a manner it simply has not been standardized before. If more than 70 companies and over half of hedge funds were already buying cryptos before the President of the United States standardized it and put his “stamp of approval” on them… then how many companies and hedge funds will buy cryptos in the Trump era? Luke’s reference to “70 companies and over half of hedge funds” buying cryptos is a reference to earlier in his issue where he highlighted a laundry list of non-crypto public companies that have allocated capital to crypto. A few examples include Tesla (TSLA), MercadoLibre (MELI), BlackRock (BLK), Block (XYZ), and Globant (GLOB). And as to the hedge fund/institutional space, Financial Times recently ran an article profiling how pension funds including Wisconsin and Michigan are buying Bitcoin. It’s evidence that even more conservative corners of finance are trying to take advantage of the potential outsized returns from crypto. Back to Luke: We think that, in 2025, hundreds of companies will start buying Bitcoin and adding it to their balance sheets. We also think that most every hedge fund will add some crypto exposure of some sort – and further expect those that already have exposure to likely increase their exposure. All of that means a lot more “big money” buying pressure on cryptos in 2025 from deep-pocketed companies and hedge funds. But it won’t stop there. If the U.S. does something economically, most other countries will likely follow. So… if the new administration compels the U.S. government to start buying Bitcoin in earnest in 2025, it’s likely that lots of countries will follow suit and start buying Bitcoin themselves. Canda. Mexico. Japan. The United Kingdom. Germany. Italy. France. So on and so forth. The result could be a Bitcoin buying frenzy by nearly every major country in the world. And who has deeper pockets than the world’s governments? Early last year, Luke predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in 2024 (which it did); he believes Bitcoin will top $200,000 later this year as crypto reaches the peak of its current cycle. | Recommended Link | | | | Sweeping executive orders! All-night Wall Street War Rooms! Lawsuits from states! All this and Trump is just getting warmed up… We’re only days into President Trump’s honeymoon period and confusion reigns the market. But one man holds the key to trading this chaos with absolute confidence. In his free event, The Most Profitable 100 Days of Your Life, Jeff Clark reveals a market pattern he expects will be popping up everywhere during Trump 2.0. This is the same pattern Jeff has relied on to successfully trade through 11 presidential transitions already. And now, he’s sharing the secret with our readers. Discover how to trade history in the making… |  | | Meanwhile, we’re already seeing signs of the Trump administration’s bullish impact on altcoins Gary Gensler was the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under President Biden. But due to his adversarial/litigious approach to the crypto sector, crypto enthusiasts knew him better as “Enemy #1”. Since Gensler resigned and left office last Friday, the number of prospective crypto ETFs filed with the SEC has doubled. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, just wrote that he, “won't be surprised if it hits 50 within a week or two.” Below is the list. If the font is too small to read, beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, it includes ETFs dedicated to Solana, Ripple, Litecoin, and Hedera Hashgraph, among others. 
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, SEC.gov Speaking of Hedera (HBAR), that brings us back to Luke. Last May, his use of stage analysis in Crypto Trader led him to recommend HBAR for his Crypto Trader subscribers. Last week, they cashed in, selling a portion of their HBAR position for 230% profits. From Luke: One of our breakout altcoins — Hedera (HBAR/USD) — has absolutely surged recently and is now running into major technical resistance just below $0.40. We are up big on the position, and therefore, think this moment of technical resistance presents a good profit-taking opportunity. Sure enough, HBAR has pulled back to roughly $0.32 as I write Thursday morning. Congrats to all the Crypto Trader subscribers on this win. Better still, from the looks of it, there are plenty more gains to come from a variety of leading cryptos. We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest. Have a good evening, Jeff Remsburg | 
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar