Don’t Rely on Lady Luck for Your Playoff Bets or Your Investing For many sports fans, this is one of their favorite weekends of the year. The NFL playoffs get under way with six games, beginning tonight and ending Monday night. It’s a sports watchers’ paradise. And with sports betting now legal in many states and so accessible, it’s becoming a sports betters’ paradise. The Super Bowl is also just a month away, and you can “bet” that a ton of wagers will be placed in the coming weeks. I haven’t joined the sports betting ranks yet, but one of my sons does it occasionally. He also enjoys checking out the multitude of parlays, prop bets, and such. If you even read sports news these days, chances are you’ll see odds listed for pretty much any kind of sporting event. There’s something you should know about those odds… Thy are against you the moment you walk into a casino or place a sports bet online. That doesn’t mean you’ll never come out a big winner. But if you do, it’s probably because Lady Luck happened to be on your side. The problem is that Lady Luck never sticks around for long. Casinos and sportsbooks are in business to make money, of course. They wouldn’t exist otherwise. The only way they can make money is if the house wins more than it loses… which means the rest of us lose more than we win. If you’re itching to play casino games, Blackjack offers the best chance of success, according to data from the American Gaming Association. You can expect to win 48.5% of the time… but that means you can expect to lose 51.5% of that time. Don’t even think about keno, where odds are you’ll lose 80% of the time. If you want the gory details, you can check out the odds of various casino games here at the American Gaming Association. But one game is not on the list: Texas Hold ’Em. That’s because Texas Hold ’Em is actually a game of skill. You can master strategies that shift the odds in your favor. This is how professional poker players make big money. Bryn Kenney, the all-time money leader in live poker tournaments, hasn’t earned more than $71 million because he’s luckier than the rest of us. To win at poker or investing, you need an edge to exploit over and over that gives you house-like odds to come out ahead – way ahead – much more often than not. My preferred edge is data… and it works. How do 70% odds of success sound? Recommended Link | | A top tech expert warns: “there’s perhaps a few hundred people in the world who realize what’s about to hit us.” Eric Fry is one of them… and he’s started a 1,000 day countdown to prepare for its launch. Click here for 3 steps to take today. | | | Do Rely on Data Most investors face those unfavorable casino-like odds. Actually, your chances of outperforming government bonds are even lower than most casino odds, according to renowned Professor Hendrik Bessembinder. He found that only 4% of publicly traded stocks generated all of the market’s returns above Treasury bills for the last century. In other words, investors have a 96% chance of losing to government bonds. Why not just invest in government bonds then? Well, it’s nearly impossible to achieve financial freedom earning under 4.8% a year, which is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond’s current yield. And that’s higher than it has been. For the last decade, that yield has been mostly below 3%. At that rate, you would need 24 years to double your money. To make a real difference, you must be in those select few stocks responsible for the outperformance. But how, when only four out of every 100 stocks give you that? Data. By analyzing the right factors the right way, you can massively increase your odds of success. That requires screening millions of data points, which is where quantitative analysis and artificial intelligence come in. My Quantum Edge system performs an in-depth analysis of more than 6,000 stocks every single trading day – more 120 fundamental and technical variables per stock. And those aren’t random variables. They’re proven to be the reliable predictors of future profits. Many of these variables – especially what Big Money is buying and selling – would be discoverable only by the handful of people who manage the largest order flow information in the world. I was privileged to do that for 14 years earlier in my career, and it led directly to my whole quant stock-picking system and its successes. Institutions account for 70% to 90% of trading volume each day. This is the Big Money that moves stocks. I know because I was the middleman on precisely these kinds of orders. It’s essential information to putting the odds in your favor. Through years of use and back testing, I can count on my system identifying winning investments 70% of the time and outperforming the S&P 500 7-to-1. Fortunately, there’s no one single “house” when it comes to investing, or we would put it out of business. If you’re betting on playoff games this weekend or taking a trip to a nearby casino, I hope you win. But please save the betting for recreation. Your hard-earned money and financial future are too important to invest against the odds. The right data analyzed the right way can tip those odds heavily in our favor. And you can take that to the bank. Talk soon, Jason Bodner Editor, Jason Bodner’s Power Trends |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar