January 3, 2025
Crypto Bears Are on Borrowed Time
Dear Subscriber,
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| By Juan Villaverde |
New year, same crypto market.
Most of us have set our resolutions for 2025 — like the seven crypto resolutions worth keeping that Jurica Dujmovic shared yesterday — and are ready for a fresh start.
Meanwhile, the crypto market continues to hold on to its 80-day sluggishness.
But that won’t be the case for much longer.
It’s clear Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) and the rest of the crypto complex sit squarely in the middle of an 80-day-cycle correction.
As you can see below, it began on Dec. 17.
A Correction on Borrowed Time
Bitcoin remains in its 80-day cycle.
Source: BraveNewCoin Bitcoin Liquidity Index (BLX).
Click here to see full-sized image.
This was a bit ahead of my Crypto Timing Model’s forecast for mid-January. But it was not entirely unexpected.
That’s because from a price perspective, the market was already quite overbought.
I didn’t expect prices to move much higher than $108,000 — which today stands as Bitcoin’s last 80-day-cycle top.
However, I did see a likely retest of this level as the new year began, which would’ve satisfied the model’s call for a January top.
Nevertheless, there is always a margin of error within these cycles.
In other words, Dec. 17 is just as good as early January for an 80-day-cycle high. A few days’ difference changes nothing of significance.
In fact, I’m quite pleased to see Bitcoin and other leading cryptos selling off. That’s because the market has already been correcting for two solid weeks.
And my Crypto Timing Model says this correction could hit bottom as early as today.
There is, however, another possibility.
That would be the market stays stuck in the mud until Jan. 18 — which is virtually the eve of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.
From a price perspective, Bitcoin has remained relatively well-bid. It hovers just below $97,000 as I write, which is far above the green horizontal dashed line (top right corner) you see in the chart above.
This line marks the intraday low on Dec. 5 — the first time Bitcoin crossed above $100,000.
My model flagged this as an important day.
Bitcoin’s Dec. 5 low sits slightly above $92,000, about 15% beneath its Dec. 17 high near $108,000.
In powerful bull markets, 80-day-cycle corrections tend to last about two weeks. They also tend to take down prices by about 15%, on average.
Both have already taken place.
What this means is simple …
Crypto’s next 80-day-cycle low could form any day now.
The next big step for us will be to confirm the low once it’s in. Observe the wavy red line in Bitcoin’s chart. This is a short-term indicator that tracks Bitcoin’s 20-day cycle.
A rally above this indicator would signal a 20-day-cycle low is in. And considering how close we are to an 80-day-cycle bottom, this would imply the 80-day-cycle low has formed as well.
I encourage you to keep that “go-getter” attitude the turn of the new year usually brings. Especially as we wait for that confirmation.
Because this pause should be seen as one last gift from 2024 — a chance to adjust your portfolio and load up on your favorite cryptos before the next rally gets underway.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
P.S. While we wait for Bitcoin’s next rally, there’s another store of value that should be on your radar — gold.
It had a banner year in 2024, and our resource expert Sean Brodrick believes that will continue this year.
In fact, he recently revealed his 2025 forecast for gold in his latest briefing.
Even better, anyone who watches is eligible to claim a Weiss-exclusive 2-gram gold bar.
So, we’re not keeping that invitation open for much longer. In fact, today is your last opportunity, so I suggest you watch it now.
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