Yet the state of our economy, the nation and even the world is hardly as dire as portrayed in the media - especially on social media. A few examples: - The U.S. economy is the envy of the world, growing at a 3.1% annual rate in the third quarter.
- The U.S. is the only major world economy that is growing faster post-pandemic than it was pre-pandemic.
- Jobs are up, wages are up, and inflation - while still too high - is only a fraction of a point from the Federal Reserve's 2% goal.
- Unemployment is near a 50-year low.
- The U.S. manufacturing sector has more jobs than at any time since the administration of George W. Bush.
- There are no U.S. troops at war overseas.
- Sweden joined NATO last year and Finland joined in 2023, making our alliance stronger.
- Two world troublemakers - Russia and Iran - are struggling badly. Russia is losing about 1,500 soldiers a day in Ukraine. Iran has seen the devastation of two proxies - Hamas and Hezbollah - and the fall of another ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
- Despite what you see on cable news, the U.S. has the lowest violent crime rate in over 50 years.
- Drug overdose deaths have fallen for the first time in years, plunging 17% in 2024.
- Youth vaping is at its lowest level in a decade.
- The obesity crisis plateaued with the introduction of injectable medications for weight loss.
- AI is already starting to lower health care costs, improve test results and speed up drug discovery.
- There have been several medical advances recently. The FDA approved donanemab, a new treatment for early Alzheimer's disease. A new cervical cancer treatment shows promise. And the world's first personalized mRNA cancer vaccine entered trials.
- Global life expectancy continues to increase.
- Extreme global poverty has decreased from 36% in 1990 to 9% today.
- And U.S. carbon emissions continue to decline. They are now 17% below 2005 levels.
Yes, there are plenty of terrible things happening in the world today too. But, as an investor, you need to balance the bad news with an understanding of the positive trends as well. It doesn't hurt for Westerners to stop occasionally and recognize that we are living longer, safer, richer, freer lives than any people in the history of the world. Americans have much to celebrate, especially on the economic front. The Federal Reserve reported last year that median household income hit a record. So did median household net wealth. There are a record number of American millionaires. Corporate sales and earnings are up. So are profit margins. And so are share prices. The S&P 500 had 57 record closes last year. My point? We're all prone to grumble about all the things that are wrong with the world. But if you're going to risk your hard-earned capital in the stock market, you need to appreciate the positive developments as well. There have always been serious problems in the world. And there always will be. Yet, in many ways, the trend really is your friend. But you have to realize it if you want to take advantage of it. Good investing, Alex |
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