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Don Kaufman here. |
Let me tell you what just happened with WFC because this trade... this trade is exactly what we live for in this business. |
Put it on November 27th, pulled it off the table December 2nd with a clean 30% profit. |
Five days! |
And the beautiful thing? |
This wasn't some wild gamble or a prayer to the trading gods - this was pure, clean, statistical edge at work. |
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The Statistical Edge 📊
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Listen, this WFC trade was textbook expected move mechanics at work. When we put this trade on last Monday, we weren't just guessing - we had WFC touching the upper expected move band for three straight weeks. T |
Three weeks! That's like a 0.4% probability event, people. You know what happens when you get this kind of statistical outlier? The market has a funny way of coming back to reality. |
And let's talk about that expected move for a second. We use these bands for a reason. They're not just pretty lines on a chart - they're showing us where the real money, the institutional players, think a stock can go. |
When you see a stock push outside these bands repeatedly, that's not normal market behavior. That's the kind of deviation that gets my attention. |
The Beauty of Spread Trading 💵
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Now, we could've just bought puts outright, but why do that? We put on a spread instead. Limited our risk to 90 cents, gave ourselves room to breathe, and didn't have to worry about time decay eating us alive. |
That's trading smart, not just trading. |
Let me tell you why spreads are so beautiful in setups like this. |
First, you've got your risk defined right from the start. No surprises, no margin calls, no sweating bullets if the trade goes against you. |
Second, you're actually using the market's overconfidence against itself by selling premium against your long position. |
And third - this is the part I love - you don't need a massive move to make money. That little 1.3% dip today in WFC was enough to bank 30%. |
The Market Context 💵
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Look, in this market, especially with big tech names like Nvidia stealing all the headlines (and you saw what happened there this morning), these setups in financials can slip right under the radar. |
But the expected move doesn't lie. When you get these statistical anomalies, you've got to be ready to act. |
And remember, WFC isn't some small-cap stock - this is a major financial that's up nearly 53% on the year. |
When you see this kind of extended move combined with our expected move signal, that's when probability is really in your favor. |
Position Management 🎯
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We closed it out at $1.17 today. |
Could it have gone higher? Sure. |
But here's the thing about trading with statistics - you don't get greedy. When probability serves up a winner and your setup plays out in five days, you take it. |
That's how you stay in this game long-term. |
The Bottom Line 💰
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Remember people, the market doesn't care about your opinion. It cares about statistics, probabilities, and where money is flowing. This WFC trade? That's what happens when you let the numbers do the talking. |
And that's exactly why we focus on expected moves and defined risk strategies. |
They give us an edge that's repeatable, measurable, and most importantly, profitable. |
This is how you build consistency in your trading - one high-probability setup at a time, always with defined risk, and always respecting what the statistics are telling you. |
When you combine the power of expected moves with the efficiency of spread trading, that's when you're really trading with an edge. |
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Don Kaufman |
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