The market crash everyone’s screaming about didn’t happen. If you’re listening to the financial media, you’d think the world is ending. Sure, Japanese stocks dropped 13% overnight. That’s what you call a crash. But today’s U.S. sell-off? It’s a blip. The S&P 500 is still up 9% this year, and today’s drop barely takes us back to April. Zoom out, and it’s a blip on a five-year chart. But here’s what’s worrying: the speed of this market’s climb over the last eight months. The rally that just kept going, almost every day. A handful of stocks pushing the S&P 500 higher. I’ve been saying for months that this kind of one-sided market isn’t safe. And for my trouble? I got laughed at, called a doomsayer, and told, “AI is different! You just don’t get it!” Maybe AI is the future, but I know market structure, and I know when things are off. A market propped up by a few high-flying stocks is a ticking time bomb. These crowded trades are hard to unwind and can collapse faster than they climb. When the market's climbing, no one panics. But the moment the ground starts to shake, the weak hands are the first to run. That’s when the real fear sets in. Back in July, I pointed out a $3.6 million bet on a market crash. That bet is now worth $37.2 million. I wrote then, “When the market is calm, and everyone’s complacent, that's when volatility spikes.” You can read more about that bet here. Guess what? Things just got shaky, fast and the market’s showing cracks. But we’re not in crash mode yet, If the S&P starts erasing its gains, that’s when we worry. Meanwhile, Japan’s market rebounded 10% in a single session. This is what we’re in for: wild swings, both ways. The volatility beast has been pent up for too long, and the big money firms are about to feel the wrath, and it’s going to be painful when things unravel. So buckle up. There will be opportunities, but a lot of folks are in for a world of pain. Trade smart, Josh Belanger You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”.
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Senin, 05 Agustus 2024
The Market Crash That Almost Wasn't
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