It might not be front-page news... but the Japanese yen is in the middle of a collapse. This downturn has been dragging on for years. The currency hit its most recent peak in early 2021. And it has gone nowhere but down ever since.
Editor's note: Today, we're turning things over to our friend Brett Eversole...
As regular readers know, Brett is an analyst at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research. And we've occasionally shared his insights about why he believes stocks will continue to move higher in 2024.
But in today's essay, Brett turns his attention to a beaten-down currency...
This essay first appeared in his free DailyWealth e-letter on May 23. As he explains, the last time we saw similar levels of pain in this currency, it took off on a multiyear rally...
This Currency Is Set Up for a Major Reversal
By Brett Eversole, editor, Stansberry Research
It might not be front-page news... but the Japanese yen is in the middle of a collapse.
This downturn has been dragging on for years. The currency hit its most recent peak in early 2021. And it has gone nowhere but down ever since.
All told, the currency has fallen 34% in three and a half years... a brutal decline for a major global currency.
But one sign tells us that a reversal could happen soon.
Sentiment is near its most bearish level on record. And as I'll explain, the last time we saw pain like this, the yen took off on a multiyear rally...
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Calling this a "currency collapse" is no exaggeration.
The yen has not only lost about a third of its value... but it also recently dropped to a three-decade-plus low in the process. Take a look...
The last time we saw these levels was in 1990... just as the 1980s Japanese bubble was beginning to burst. Plus, as the chart shows, the recent decline has been quick and severe.
Lots of folks are worrying the yen could fall much further from here. But that's the wrong assumption to make right now...
You see, everyone believes the decline will continue. They've left this currency for dead. And that means sentiment is set up for a major reversal.
We can see this clearly by looking at the yen's Commitment of Traders ("COT") report...
This weekly report shows us what futures traders are doing with their money. When these traders all bet together on the same outcome, the opposite tends to happen. And as you can see, they've recently been betting against the yen at a wild pace...
The COT has fallen alongside the yen in recent months. It recently hit its most negative reading since mid-2007. And as it turns out, that was also a darn good time to bet on a yen reversal...
The currency was falling back then as well. It was down nearly 20% in two and a half years. But once sentiment hit an extreme, the yen started to rally...
It moved higher in value for more than four years. The overall gain was 63% – a huge return for a major currency.
We could be on the cusp of a similar move right now. The yen has crashed in recent years. And recently, futures traders have been betting against it at crazy levels.
That means a reversal is likely. And if it ends up being a sustained rally, the yen is likely heading much higher than we've seen in years.
Most folks don't expect a turnaround from this currency right now. But the contrarian bet is that we should see a much stronger yen in the months ahead.
Good investing,
Brett Eversole Editor's note: Right now, Brett is also keeping his eye on a rare setup in the gold market...
The sudden run-up in the precious metal's price created this anomaly, according to Brett. And it also makes right now the perfect time to apply a new approach to this space.
Brett just recorded an urgent briefing to share all the details...
To help share the story, he brought in a 30-year gold-market veteran. This man built a $20 million net worth thanks almost entirely to his knowledge of this space. Get the full story here.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.51%
7
18
5
S&P 500
+0.07%
117
291
89
Nasdaq
+0.37%
26
54
20
Small Caps
-0.14%
475
1029
392
Bonds
-1.43%
Energy
+1.03%
3
15
4
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain somewhat Bullish. Major indexes remain all bullish.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+0.67%
Communication
+0.42%
Materials
-1.38%
Energy
-1.67%
Industrials
-1.77%
Discretionary
-1.89%
Utilities
-1.98%
Staples
-2.09%
Financial
-2.44%
Health Care
-2.45%
Real Estate
-3.53%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Telecom Services
4
18
18
Over the past 6 months, the Telecom subsector (XTL) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -11.15%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #19 of 21 subsectors.
Indicative Stocks
LITE
Lumentum Holdings In
AAOI
Applied Optoelectron
LUMN
Lumen Technologies,
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
NVDA
+6.98%
RL
+4.5%
DECK
+4.48%
FCX
+4.08%
VST
+4.02%
Losers
MRNA
-8.05%
BLDR
-4.92%
MKTX
-4.86%
PNR
-4.59%
PANW
-4.23%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
A
CRM, HPQ
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
HEI HEICO Corporation
Q2
$0.88
Beat by $0.06
GLNG Golar LNG Limited
Q1
$0.93
Beat by $0.47
BOX Box, Inc.
Q1
$0.39
Beat by $0.03
* * * *
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