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| |  | | May 3, 2024 | | Daily Notes Dear Leah, Welcome to our end-of-the-week wrapup, where we break down the past week in "Daily Notes." What follows is a brief rundown of each day's notes, so you can quickly stay in the know. You can read each issue in full – including my “Idea of the Day,” Market Health Check, updates on our current model portfolio, and more – at your Innovation Investor subscriber site.
Monday, April 29 - The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey shows further signs of disinflation returning in April.
- We really don’t need rate-cuts to rally.
- The big story right now – aside from the Fed – is that earnings have been really good so far this reporting season.
- Small-caps are really cheap, and it is only a matter of time before they soar.
You can read these notes in full here. Tuesday, April 30 - The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged in April to 97, below estimates for a reading around 104 and way down from the 103.1 reading registered in March.
- Despite the big drop in consumer confidence, consumer inflation expectations remained stable at 4.3% in April.
- Thus far, the Fed’s rate hikes have not caused any significant economic damage because the labor market has remained resilient.
- Dallas Fed Services Survey continues trend of falling price pressures in April.
- Bloomberg’s Energy Commodity Price Index rose in early 2024, but has flatlined in April, paced by a sizable decline in oil and natural gas prices.
You can read these notes in full here. Wednesday, May 1 - Rate cut hopes make a comeback.In response to Powell’s comments today, the futures market upped their total rate-cut outlook for 2024 by 8 basis points.
- Based on the recent batch of earnings reports, consumer inflation in the U.S. is absolutely dead.
- According to today’s released ADP Employment Report, the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in April, versus 208,000 jobs in May, showing that the economy – although it is still growing – is slowing.
You can read these notes in full here. Thursday, May 2 - No Daily Notes due to Luke’s traveling schedule.
Friday, May 3 - The U.S. economy added just 175,000 jobs in April, far below expectations for 240,000 new jobs and a huge drop from the 315,000 jobs created in March.
- The unemployment rate was expected to stay flat in April around 3.8%.
- Average hourly earnings rose just 3.9% year-over-year last month, down from the 4.1% wage inflation reported in March.
- In further evidence of a weakening economy, the ISM Services Index for April dropped below 50 for the first time since December 2022.
- The only “hot” datapoint from today’s economic deluge was a surprise jump in the ISM Services Prices Index.
You can read these notes in full here.
Go to Your Subscriber Site |  | | Luke Lango
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