Rabu, 03 Januari 2024

The 2023 Safety Net Scorecard (Plus, a 14.5% Yielder at Risk of a Cut)

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AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

Wealthy Retirement

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Editor's Note: Happy New Year!

To kick off 2024, Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld is taking a look back at how his Safety Net column performed in 2023.

Marc's dividend advice is one of the many things his readers love about Wealthy Retirement, The Oxford Income Letter and his bestselling book Get Rich with Dividends.

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- Rachel Gearhart, Publisher

Safety Net Gets a Gold Star for 2023

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

I hope your 2024 is off to a great start.

2023 was a stellar year for Safety Net. It did exactly what it was designed to do: It let you know that your dividends with "A" and "B" ratings were safe, and it warned you about your dividends with "D" and "F" ratings before they were cut.

In one case, it warned you within minutes of the announcement.

On June 21, I said "another dividend reduction is a sure thing" for mortgage real estate investment trust Two Harbors Investment (NYSE: TWO).

Within 20 minutes of the column hitting your inboxes, Two Harbors slashed its dividend by 25%.

Something similar happened on September 27. I gave Global Net Lease (NYSE: GNL) a "D" rating for dividend safety, cautioning investors, "The company's management may consider its income to be stable, but I suspect shareholders soon won't be able to say the same."

Soon turned out to be very soon. Five days later, the company reduced its dividend by 12%.

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The Results

During the year, nine stocks received an "A" grade for dividend safety. Not one of them cut its dividend. In fact, six of them raised their dividends. None of the eight stocks with "B" ratings or the eight stocks with "C" ratings decreased their dividends either.

However, as we move to the lower grades, we start to see some cuts.

Two of the nine stocks with "D" ratings reduced their dividends after we issued our grades, while six of the nine with "F" ratings did so.

In fact, the average changes in the dividends during the year lined up exactly how you'd expect based on their ratings.

Chart: Who Americans spend their time with, by age
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One of the few stocks with an "F" rating that did not lower its dividend is one of the most commonly requested stocks for the Safety Net column: AGNC Investment Corp. (Nasdaq: AGNC).

I reviewed AGNC twice in 2023 - once in January and again in July.

In January, I actually said, "Investors can probably bank on the dividend this year as long as [net interest income] comes in near where it's expected." However, I warned that because of the company's track record of cutting the dividend when times get tough, there would be another reduction the next time NII turned lower.

The theme was the same six months later. The company's NII was still fine in July, but its nine dividend cuts in 12 years remained a sure sign that another cut was coming at some point.

Will it be in 2024?

That depends...

How long can you count on AGNC's dividend?
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