Selasa, 02 Januari 2024

Opportunity on a Titan (AAPL)

 
   
     
   
 
JAN 02, 2024
   
SCOTT WELSH’S TICKER TALES
Watch For The Bounce…
 

When tech goes crazy, it’s easy to think it will go to the moon and never come down.

But it always comes down.

And those are the opportunities that the famous traders try not to miss.

Coincidentally, we’re getting a situation like that now on Apple (AAPL).

AAPL has been bearish lately, and one analyst has even recently downgraded the juggernaut (gasp).

Suddenly, the trillion dollar baby is not so hot.

Here’s the chart:

 
 

But look at that. 

It’s not armageddon. It’s a boring move back to the 30-week simple moving average.

A typical bounce off of the SMA could lead back to a buy point at $198.23. 

And a big move afterwards.

The new year is sending us a gift on a huge tech stock. 

We’ll keep an eye on it.

— Scott Welsh
P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on this Ask The Pros episode starting at timestamp 20:45.

 
 
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PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
Rental Rollercoaster: Baby Boomers Riding Toward a Homelessness Crisis
 

Hey, did you hear about the latest group getting an unceremonious nudge into the homelessness crisis? It's not who you'd expect. The younger side of the Baby Boomer generation is finding itself on the sharp end of a skyrocketing rent crisis — and their golden years are looking more like lead.

Picture this: You've worked your entire life, dreaming of those sweet, sweet retirement days, only to find out that the cost of living has decided to run a marathon… Meanwhile, it turns out your Social Security is still tying its shoelaces.

According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, adults 65 and older are now the fastest-growing segment of homeless Americans. That's right —  folks who should be enjoying retirement are instead facing the harsh reality of homelessness, due in major part to the soaring cost of housing.

From 2007 to 2017, there's been a jump from 16.5% to 23% in the number of people over 51 in homeless shelters. And since 2018, the stats for those 55 and older in shelters have risen from 16.3% to a worrying 19.8%.

The National Health Care for the Homeless Council even reported a spike to 36% in 2022 from 25% just 15 years earlier. These numbers are a real wake-up call.

The "trailing edge" boomers, born between 1956 and 1964, are getting the short end of the stick. They stepped into the workforce and were immediately greeted by economic recessions. Talk about bad timing.

Now, as they're hitting retirement, they're finding the welcome mat pulled out from under them, just as rents are soaring and pandemic aid is fading off into the distance.

The average Social Security benefit is about $1,706 per month. But wait for it… the median rent price is a whopping $2,047.

Do the math, and you'll see why this is a recipe for disaster. And places like Florida, the retiree haven, are taking the brunt of it, with half of the top 20 cities with the steepest rent increases since the pandemic.

As the number of Americans 65 or older is expected to balloon to 81 million by 2040, finding affordable housing is becoming tougher than snagging a front-row seat at a sold-out rock concert. In Florida, good luck finding low-cost senior housing or long-term care facilities without hitting a waiting list longer than a grocery line on the eve of a hurricane.

So what's the takeaway? If the trend continues, and rents keep playing leapfrog with incomes, we might see a surge in older folks needing to hustle for extra income or face the harsh reality of homelessness.

It's a tough pill to swallow, but it's the reality of our times. Let's hope for a solution that brings back some dignity to our seniors’ golden years.

— The Prosperity Pub Team
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