Jumat, 29 Desember 2023

How This Beaten Down Stock Broke Out

Anatomy of a Great Trade
 
   
     
   
 
DEC 29, 2023
   
SCOTT WELSH’S ANATOMY OF A GREAT TRADE
Anatomy of a Great Trade: AES
 

Today we’re going to look at yet another deep value trade.

Remember, big winners can come from breakouts to new highs.

But big winners can also come from “beaten down” stocks that are “on sale”.

In other words, we can buy it below “fair value” and ride the upward momentum as the stock regains its proper glory.

Here’s an example.

In October 2023, I ran one of my deep value scans. This looks for stocks that appear to have fallen way down below what they’re worth mathematically. 

As I’ve mentioned, for me that means I’m looking for a stock that is down by its lower Bollinger Band™.

Then I’m looking for a move back up toward the long-term 800-day simple moving average.

The reasoning is: if a stock is down at the lower band while its fair value is far up above, we have a chance for a big win.

Back in October, one of the stocks that came up on the scan was AES. 

Here’s the chart:


 
 

In October ‘23, it was even below its lower band and was trading around $13.70.

With “fair value” up at $23, that seemed like we had some great potential.

And, as you can see, it’s begun its march up to “fair value”. 

AES is up about 40% at the moment. 

And it still has room to rise up to the moving average.

Have a great New Year!

 
Happy trading,

— Scott Welsh

 
PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
Tesla's Recall Riddle: More Alerts, Same Old Questions
 

Tesla, the electric vehicle titan known for its Autopilot swagger, is now hitting the headlines with a recall that's stirring up more drama than a season finale cliffhanger. It seems Tesla may have to recall almost every Tesla vehicle America. But it's not for a shiny new feature. Instead, they're updating their Autopilot software to add what amounts to a digital nag: more warnings to keep drivers attentive.

Now, you might be thinking, "That's it? Just some extra beeps and boops?" And you'd be right. Experts and lawmakers are wagging their fingers, saying these new bells and whistles are like putting a Band-Aid on a broken leg. The real issue, they argue, is that Tesla lets drivers turn on Autopilot just about anywhere, even in places where it’s downright dangerous.

Matthew Wansley, a law professor with a keen eye on automotive tech, put it bluntly: "What a missed opportunity." Tesla's letting drivers use Autopilot on roads with cross traffic, which, surprise surprise, is where a bunch of these crashes are happening.

Even Senator Richard Blumenthal, who's not exactly Tesla's number one fan, chimed in, calling the move "far from sufficient." It's like telling a kid not to touch the cookie jar but leaving it wide open on the counter.

But here's the kicker: Tesla didn't exactly agree with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) findings but went ahead with the updates anyway. Talk about mixed signals.

Now, to add some spice to the drama, Tesla critic Dan O’Dowd, from the Dawn Project, thinks the whole recall is a swing and a miss. "Ban the software, don't just watch it," he says.

After the recall news hit, Tesla's stock did a little dip but ended up strutting out stronger. Investors seem to think this won't put a dent in Tesla's march towards an autonomous future. Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management doesn't see this slowing down the Musk express train one bit.

This whole debacle reminds us of those early days of internet search engines. Remember Yahoo, Lycos, Altavista, or Dogpile? They were the leaders in the mid-to-late 90’s, but along came Google, the underdog that wiped them all out. Betting on Yahoo back then would have left you with a pocket full of regret.

In today’s EV race, Tesla may be leading the pack, but history shows us that today's leader can be tomorrow's footnote. With Musk's escapades and the ongoing drama, could Tesla one day take the back seat to a new EV champ that hasn't even revved its engines yet?


— The Prosperity Pub Team
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