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How to Determine Which Scanner Orders Are Worth Considering Hey Trader, If you’ve been following along for any length of time, then you likely know that options trading is my bread and butter… And I do it by tracking and trading the unusual options activity that peppers my personal options scanner all day long. And trading this earnings season has been nothing short of incredible. If you’ve attended any of my live trading sessions and watched the chat, then you’ve probably seen a lot of people asking how I differentiate the good orders from the bad, especially when we see conflicting orders like this come in just two days apart… Intel reported earnings Thursday after the close, so all four of these, especially the short-dated calls that came the last 30 minutes that day, are clearly earnings plays. So how would I know which is worth considering, calls or puts? It’s pretty simple, actually... When you see conflicting orders the same day or just a day or two apart, you have to consider what kind of stock it is, and its normal trading volume. Intel is a widely traded stock in both shares and options. So you’re going to see names like this, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google — all the big dogs — trade millions of shares/contracts a day. So when you see an order in INTC for $100,000 or $150,000… that’s not a particularly big order for a big stock. The next thing I look at is the chart... Using INTC still, this is a bullish chart dating all the way back to October 2022. This stock was also trading around $34.50 or so when the $32.50 put came in, so that’s out of the money (and cheaper)… So to me, the bullish long-term daily chart along with it being a smallish total bet for such a widely traded stock, this tells me it’s likely a hedge against a long stock position in case earnings are bad. Think about it like this… Most institutions and hedge funds are long in their stock positions, especially ahead of catalysts like earnings events. So they buy out-of-the-money (OTM) puts as insurance in case the stock tanks. Back to INTC and the calls… they were the $35 strike. So, obviously, they’re pretty much in the money (ITM) — that tells me it’s a higher-probability play. So I always favor calls over puts when they hit the scanner. But my ears do perk up when it’s a big premium paid for ITM puts. And always be aware of upcoming catalysts like earnings. If it’s an OTM put on a stock with a bullish chart, it’s likely a hedge. I hope that helps! The bridge spans Tampa Bay, connecting St. Petersburg to Terra Ceia, Florida, and it’s the world’s longest cable-stayed concrete bridge. At least that’s what Wikipedia says… If you’re looking to catch some mackerel, snapper and sea trout, this is the place to be! But if you’re looking to catch some nice gains, my Shadow Trader strategy is the place to be… This was our biggest catch of the week! The profits and performance shown are not typical, and you may lose money. From 2/21/20 to 7/28/23 on live trades the win rate is 67.7%, the average return of winners and losers combined is 13.4%. The average winner is 51.5% on the options over a 6.75-day average hold time, with a total annualized return of 144.1% P.S. Be sure to join my Telegram channel here for frequent market updates, commentary, live event notifications, trade alerts and more! |
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