Kamis, 29 Juni 2023

A Litmus Test For Potential Recession

 
   
     
   
 
JUNE 29 2023
 
   
SCOTT WELSH’S TICKER TALES
The Best Stocks Declare Themselves Quickly And Loudly
 

The last time we talked, we were looking for a canary in a coal mine.

That canary was MAR (Marriott International):
 
 
If we head toward the allegedly “inevitable” recession, MAR will turn around and head south. If we stay bullish, we’ll see a breakout. 

And H (Hyatt) is in that same canary family. 

If the recession is a soft one or nonexistent, then H will break above $122 and move up nicely:
 
 
If times get tough, H stock will not do well. 

Okay, great. 

So, which one do we pick?

How do we ever pick if more than one stock we like triggers a trade?

That question can lead to analysis paralysis. 

Or it can be easy.

We can simply pick whichever one moves first. 

Momentum is real and the best stocks declare themselves quickly and loudly. 

The first stock to move in a sector is usually the one that will run the farthest.
So, the gauntlet has been laid down, MAR and H. 

We’re interested in whichever one explodes first. 

Good luck to both of you.

— Jeffry Turnmire
JEFFRY TURNMIRE
High Probability Setups: Seasonality Paired With An Income Trade
 

A trader could drive him or herself crazy looking for the perfect stock. Truth is there is no “perfect stock.”

If you’ve been following me for any amount of time, you’ll know that I don’t believe in a perfect stock. Every stock goes through good and bad times.

The “perfection” is in the setup. It’s all about time.

Now, I've always been a fan of patterns in the market. If something's happened the same way time and time again, there's a good chance it'll keep happening.

Certain stocks have a way of climbing up the ladder around the same time each year — that's seasonality in a nutshell. It's similar to how the weather predictably gets warmer in the spring and summer and cooler in the fall and winter.

But Jack’s taken this a step further. He’s not just looking for stocks that “tend to do well” at certain times of the year. He’s gathered a data pool of just stocks that have gone up on the same day every year for at least 10 years.

If a stock missed even one day, it’s off the list.

But it gets better. Because he's not just sitting around waiting for these stocks to maybe go up. He’s paired this list of stocks with something called an income trade.

It's a way he has made money even if the stock doesn't shoot to the moon. Instead — as long as it doesn't go down too much, you're in the green.

Talk about a high-probability setup.

When you pair that income trade with a stock that's got a decade-long track record of rising, and you've got yourself an incredible edge in the markets.

It's like adding a safety net to your trampoline. You still get the bounce, but with a whole lot less risk.

So, if you're looking for a solid trading strategy, consider this one-two punch of seasonality paired with an income trade. It's not flashy, it's not complicated, it's just a good, sensible approach to making your money work for you.

Remember, the goal isn't to hit home runs; it's to keep steadily building your wealth, year after year. And this, my friends, is one way to do just that.

If you want to find out exactly how Jack does it, I recently went on camera to talk to him about it. You can watch us discuss it here.

Hope you see the power of adding this strategy to your arsenal.

— Jeffry Turnmire
   
 
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