Kamis, 28 Juli 2022

The White House Recession Lie

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The White House Recession Lie

By Ian Wyatt

By Ian Wyatt
Thursday, July 28, 2022

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It's sort of crazy.

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.9% during the period from April – June.

That's the second consecutive quarter of a shrinking economy – which is the most commonly widely used definition of a recession.

Yet politicians in Washington are now arguing that this isn't a REAL recession.


White House Changes Recession Yardstick

A recession is a death blow for any political party that's in power.

That's why the Biden White House spent this week spinning a narrative that it's not a recession – even if the data says otherwise.

On Monday President Biden explained…

"We're not going to be in a recession, in my view. My hope is we go from this rapid growth to steady growth."

Similarly, on July 24 The Council for Economic Advisors released a blog post to redefine a recession:

"While some maintain that two consecutive quarts of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle."

Finally, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke with NBC's Meet the Press to explain…

"I do want to emphasize: What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy. And even if that [second-quarter-GDP-growth] number is negative, we are not in a recession now."

The definition of "recession" is conveniently being re-written.

In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin provided a few rules for defining a recession. And the most popular of these was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.

In recent decades this has become the widely accepted definition.

Of course, a recession doesn't mean the collapse of the economy. There are violent recessions that destroy millions of jobs – like the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009. And there are mild recessions with more muted negative effects.

Right now, it's likely that the U.S. economy will experience a shallower recession than previous periods like 2008 – 2009. Like many things in this post-Covid era – this recession may look and feel different than past recessions.

This recession includes shrinking GDP, soaring inflation that erodes buying power, and low unemployment.

The average American household is currently feeling the pinch.

This week's news from Walmart (NYSE: WMT) revealed the serious problem.

Walmart's CEO says that its customers are spending more money on gas and groceries – due to rampant inflation. And they're cutting back spending in other categories. America's largest retailer is now slashing prices on items such as clothing and electronics. That's expected to hurt profits this year.

The National Bureau of Economic Research ultimately decides whether there has been a recession. We could expect to hear from them in 6 – 12 months.

However, I'd bet most Americans today would say that we're currently in a recession.

What do you think? Reply to this email to let me know – I personally read every message.

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Yours in Wealth,
Ian Wyatt
Ian Wyatt

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