Paul Tudor Jones comes out swinging... The thing about these 'uncharted waters'... It's time for a new map... A world of higher inflation... Stocks and bonds are in rare territory... An option to consider today...
 From a legend's mouth to our ears...
This morning we awoke to a notification that one of our favorite tell-it-like-it-is financial voices is, to put it mildly, skeptical about the near-term future of the economy... Paul Tudor Jones Рa Tennessee-born Wall Street legend featured in Jack Schwager's great Market Wizards books, and a contrarian investor who has made billions in a multidecade investing career Рwas on CNBC this morning... We've mentioned him before... Tudor Jones started his career in 1976 on the New York Cotton Exchange, and gained fame making roughly $100 million in profit from the 1987 Black Monday crash. More recently, Tudor Jones Рwho manages billions of dollars for private clients Рwas also one of the first Wall Street types to be publicly bullish on bitcoin. He was also a welterweight boxing champion during his days at the University of Virginia. And this morning, he came out swinging in a message delivered to a mainstream audience... It's probably not what most people wanted to hear before breakfast, but it's an important warning along the lines of what I (Corey McLaughlin) have shared with you over the past several months. Among other things, Tudor Jones said... You can't think of a worse macro[economic] environment than where we are right now. He talked about the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates in the year ahead, with the next move Рa 0.50% benchmark rate hike Рexpected to come tomorrow following the central bank's next meeting. And Tudor Jones shared why he's concerned... In 'normal' times, we'd see the opposite... Tudor Jones pointed out that in the past several decades, the Fed has typically tried to make economic life easier and borrowing costs lower in the circumstances like today's... He noted that stocks are already down for the year, by roughly 13% as measured by the benchmark S&P 500 Index... Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar Рa "safe haven" destination for folks Рis up 6% over the past month Рand about 12% since last June. And Tudor Jones indicated that he thought credit spreads Рthe difference between yields of riskier corporate bonds and "risk-free" U.S. Treasurys Рhave widened lately, showing that investors are getting more nervous than they have been... To be clear, our Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase told me privately today we are not close to the next credit panic. The spread between high-yield bonds and government bonds, for instance, is below its long-term average today. But Tudor Jones' broader point is important. We're in uncharted territory... This may be a tired clich̩, but it's fitting for today... almost. As we've said recently, this time is not entirely different. I'll explain why again today. Tudor Jones made some gloomy references this morning... to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008... the Black Monday crash of 1987... the dot-com bust from 2000 to 2002... when stocks were falling, the dollar was strengthening, and credit investors were scared. We're not saying 2022 will go down exactly like those. Nor did he... but he did point out a significant detail that we have also noted these last few months. Usually, in times like we're seeing today, Fed monetary policy has gotten "easier" and borrowing costs have become cheaper. Today, the central bank is staring down an inflation problem the U.S. hasn't dealt with in decades. In response, it's making dollars more expensive... to slow demand in what is an already slowing economy, as we just learned via a first-quarter 2022 gross domestic product ("GDP") decline of 1.4%. Here's the big point, as Tudor Jones said... Every one of those instances are all associated with cuts, Federal Reserve board [interest-rate] cuts within 24 days on average... some of them within two to three days. Now all of sudden, we've got the same kind of reaction in the markets, which is clearly a risk-off. Credit spreads have blown out, stocks are down 13% in a year, and the dollar is up significantly. All that normally has provoked or invoked a Fed response of cutting rates, and yet we're probably on the cusp of 200 basis points (2%) of rises in rates by mid-September. It's uncharted territory. Indeed, these are uncharted waters, but only to a certain point... It's not that the world has never seen today's circumstances at all... It's just that no one under the age of 45 has any significant memory of it... and most mainstream financial advice is geared toward what has happened over the past five decades... The country has endured various financial crises and manias along the way of the last several decades, of course, but not since the 1970s and early '80s has anyone seen official inflation numbers as high as they are today... As Tudor Jones said, the latest consumer price index ("CPI") Рa commonly used inflation measure Рchecked in at an 8% annual gain, the highest in 40 years... It may come down the second half of the year, but even then, he said... If you've got inflation greater than 3% on average, your purchasing power cuts in half in 13 years. It's why I wish we could go back to those halcyon days of sub-2% inflation when you didn't have to worry about the value of your money... You didn't have to worry about what you were doing with regard to pay raises, and you didn't have to worry about pricing and a variety of things that all of a sudden become that much more important to have a normal business. Many people haven't known a world where stocks and bonds have fallen in tandem over a lengthy period of time, either. Macro analyst Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Marco Compass newsletter and a recent interview guest of our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone, shared last week the raw numbers... In the first quarter of 2022, stocks and U.S. Treasurys dropped more than 5% and 2%, respectively, in a quarter for only the fourth time in the past 49 years... The other three times happened in the late 1970s, the early '80s, and during the financial crisis in 2008... Again, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates tomorrow Рby 0.50%, which it hasn't done in one action since 2000 Рand make life harder while we're already in an economic contraction... in order to at least say it's fighting inflation. And it sounds like the Fed governors are bent on doing this for the rest of the year if needed. They could change the plan if inflation starts to cool and the economy moves into a recession, but that would likely take some time... When this Fed has changed direction Рlike when Chair Jerome Powell finally acknowledged in December inflation was long-lasting rather than "transitory" Рthe central bank has acted more like a giant cruise ship slowly turning in water rather than a Jet Ski pivoting on a dime. Conventional wisdom has a problem... As our colleague and Stansberry Research partner Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig wrote in the Digest last year, this reality presents a problem for folks who rely on other people to manage their money as "it's always been done"... Today's financial industry Рand in turn, its general portfolio allocation recommendations Рis modeled on what has happened over the past 30 years... because in general, we've been in the same economic environment. For the most part, the past three decades have seen steady growth, low inflation, and low interest rates... But, for now at least, things have changed... The currents in the ocean are not flowing the same direction they have in the past... Whatever overused analogy you want to employ, a different navigational map is needed to get you where you want to go. As Doc says, we shouldn't expect the kind of returns in the stock market that we've been used to during a low-inflation era... and we shouldn't expect the same returns from bonds either. As he wrote last June... Most people simply expect bonds to march ahead, pay out interest, and earn a little capital gains as well. But here's what most folks in the mainstream aren't telling you... That's going to be hard to do today. Today, interest rates are so low, they can't really go lower. So bond prices can't rise, putting a mathematical end to a 40-year bond bull market that started in 1981 when interest rates peaked. What's more, the Fed's primary weapon to fight inflation is to raise interest rates, again meaning bond prices would go lower... The central bank has already indicated it will do just that as soon as next year. (In another scenario, the Fed could do nothing and let inflation run wild... Neither is a good outcome for income investors.) First off, kudos to Doc and his research team on having the foresight about this massive sea change in the markets... and sharing it with subscribers. Second, this is why we've urged you to prepare Рand use the new maps our team created... Here's a good option... It's why we've warned that the conventional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio that so many folks rely on to grow their savings was and is in "real trouble" this year Рand remains so Рas inflation fears and realities have hit even more people... It's why our team has come up with alternatives you can use to protect and grow your hard-earned money... Take our Portfolio Solutions products, for example. Our Defensive Portfolio, which pulls recommendations from many of our publications and is designed for times like these, is up more than 1% for the year... compared to a roughly 13% loss in the S&P 500. You'd also enjoy similar benefits following Doc's Intelligent Retirement portfolio, which has been crushing the conventional 60/40 portfolio in 2022... or the recommendations in our new Stansberry's Financial Survival Program, which we urge you to consider today. Most recently in this timely seven-part series, analysts Greg Diamond and Jeff Havenstein showed subscribers two strategies to make money from a crashing market... plus the "anatomy of a bear market," and how to spot one. Before that, analyst Alan Gula shared a "special situation" opportunity Рwhich, as we just learned over the weekend during Berkshire-Hathaway's (BRK-B) annual shareholder meeting РWarren Buffett thinks is a bet worth making today, too. This Friday, our colleague Matt McCall will show how a market sell-off can make for a great opportunity for investors... and we'll close out the program in a few weeks with a five-stock portfolio that should hold up well no matter what happens next in the economy. And in the meantime, we'll keep on spreading our word... until there's no one left to tell and no reason to say it anymore. At that point, you'll want to again consider going whole-hog putting new money to work in stocks. But for now, it's wise to be selective. New 52-week highs (as of 5/2/22): None. In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest... Do you have a comment, question, or suggestion? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "The Relief Rally probably happens this week after the Fed raises the interest rates that they control. Mr. Market will approve! This week is not the time to panic. "But what about volatility in the markets? The trend for equities and bonds is down. Meb is right! A big correction down is justified... and should be considered normal. The can can't be kicked down the road much further. Batten down the hatches... dive, dive, dive. "It's time to be cautious, be diversified, and own real assets... Invest in your family and your friendships." РPaid-up subscriber Rob C. All the best, Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
May 3, 2022
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,018.2% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | ETH/USD
Ethereum | 02/21/20 | 943.9% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 876.2% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data | 10/09/08 | 773.0% | Extreme Value | Ferris | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 512.5% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 464.2% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | AFG
American Financial | 10/12/12 | 414.4% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 01/16/20 | 338.9% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 05/05/20 | 333.4% | DailyWealth Trader | Morris | FSMEX
Fidelity Sel Med | 09/03/08 | 304.2% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 2 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | | 3 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 1 | Extreme Value | Ferris | | 1 | DailyWealth Trader | Morris |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | ETH/USD
Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 1,997.2% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE-USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,875.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POLY/USD
Polymath | 05/19/20 | 1,129.3% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 928.7% | Crypto Capital | Wade | MATIC/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 913.3% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Band Protocol crypto | | 0.32 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra crypto | | 0.41 years | 1,164% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Frontier crypto | | 0.08 years | 978% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin crypto | | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Nvidia^ | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | | PNC Warrants | PNC-WS | 6.16 years | 709% | True Wealth Sys. | Sjuggerud | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. | 
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar