Demand for everything is through the roof while supply sits near all-time lows.
Heck, even Apple Inc. (AAPL) said that supply chain issues could constrain its sales in the upcoming quarter.
So why advertise and offer discounts when a business could easily sell at full price?
Don’t mistake this slowdown as a structural trend. The declines in Facebook ad revenue are temporary, driven by the current economy and recession fears. We aren’t likely to see a full-blown market collapse or a long-term change in the behavior of FB advertisers.
Taking a step back, look at Meta in a broader context.
Let me give you a comparison between Meta and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) to put things in perspective.
Facebook
Trades at 15.2x current earnings and 9.12x current operating cash flow (cash flow before capital expenditures)
Grew revenues last year at 37.18%
From analyst’s estimates at the high range of $139.16 billion, revenue could grow 18.01% from 2021 to 2022
Has five-year average revenue growth of 31.63%
Carries $14.4 billion in debt
Has barely scratched the surface of African and Asian markets
Trades at 20.5x current earnings and 19.52x current operating cash flow
Grew revenues last year at 12.93%
From analyst’s estimates at the high range of $83.99 billion, revenue could grow just 5.6% from 2021 to 2022
Has five-year average revenue growth of 4.82%
Carries $40.05 billion in debt
Is already mature in most geographic markets
You know markets aren’t behaving rationally when Pepsi garners a richer valuation than Meta.
This fundamental discrepancy between a company’s ability to turn a profit and its stock price is where we find huge potential.
Pick No. 2: Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
Source: Shutterstock
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down nearly 25% year-to-date, with Micron’s stock performing roughly the same.
Yet this memory and storage manufacturer sits in the dead center of a demand boom cycle for computer processors and technology.
While supply constraints have been a problem for Micron and other chip companies, they have compensated with higher prices to offset increased expenses. Plus, according to the most recent earnings conference call, Micron expects to grow supply in 2022.
Now, let’s pull up those same valuation statistics for Micron as we did for Meta and Pepsi:
Micron
Trades at 8.58x current earnings and 5.07x current operating cash flow
Grew revenues last year at 29.25%
From analyst’s estimates at the high range of $34.86 billion, revenue could grow 25.83% from 2021 to 2022
Has five-year average revenue growth of 17.44%
Carries $7.67 billion in debt
Has a global presence with a decent chunk of market share where it participates
Let me put this in perspective for you.
If Micron performs the exact same over the next five years, it could pay for all of its outstanding shares.
It would take Pepsi almost 20 years to accomplish that same feat. Even if demand slows and margins compress to the point where Micron trades at 10x cash, the stock would still be cheap.
Pick No. 3: Ryder System Inc. (R)
Source: Shutterstock
Let’s take a trip outside the technology sector to transportation.
Ryder System provides logistics solutions, focusing mainly on leasing trucks and related equipment (which generates more than half its annual revenues) as well as offering supply chain solutions and dedicated transportation services.
Right now, everyone and their brother is bidding for trucking lanes. There simply aren’t enough drivers or equipment to meet demand.
And if you think it’s bad now, just wait until all the manufacturers return their production to the U.S.
But take a look at the valuation measures for this company.
Ryder System
Trades at 5.79x current earnings and 1.64x current operating cash flow
Grew revenues last year at 14.76%
From analyst’s estimates at the high range of $11.9 billion, revenue could grow 23.15% from 2021 to 2022
Has five-year average revenue growth of 7.32%
Carries $7.32 billion in debt
Operates in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and the U.K.
To be fair, Ryder has a lot of capital expenditures each year on equipment. So it’s probably fair to point out that the company’s ratio of price to free cash flow, the cash flow after you take out capital expenditures, is around 16x.
But, considering that the company’s total assets exceed its liabilities, we shouldn't ignore the operating cash flow measure either. Because if the company had to liquidate right now, according to the balance sheet, it would still be worth close to $50 per share.
The point is that this company is worth a lot more than most people realize.
Tech stock investors have bled out profits this year. But the big crash is still looming around the corner.
Here's a simple way to know with ALGORITHMIC INSIGHT which tech stocks to get rid of before you lose it all. And – which to keep to ride a mega-bull rebound!
While these are among the amazing values in the market right now, the timing may not be there quite yet.
According to our Health Indicators, Meta and Micron are currently in the Red Zone, while Ryder sits in the Yellow Zone.
The market is under pressure overall. So we want to give it space to find its footing before stepping into these and other names.
With so many stocks beaten up over the last year, what companies do you have your eye on that could have been unfairly tossed out with all the other refuse?
Email me and let me know. I’d love to hear your take and what you uncover.
Enjoy your Wednesday,
Keith Kaplan CEO, TradeSmith
P.S. It doesn’t matter if we’re in a bear market, bull market, or somewhere in between.
Just like we showcased with Meta, Micron, and Ryder, there are always potential trading opportunities out there… if you know where to look.
This untapped source of stock ideas we’re about to share has discovered an average of one triple-digit opportunity every trading day since 2018.
Click here to stop chasing returns and put your gains on fast forward.
P.P.S. You're invited to join our Product Education Lead, Marina Stroud, for her free Intermediate Bootcamp training session.
This week's webinar will focus on the TradeSmith Market Outlook as it pertains to our indicators and signals. Based on our indicators, we can determine the health of the major indexes, sectors, and commodities so that you can find opportunities in any market condition.
We will also explore our Bullseye and Bearseye signals and the newest TradeSmith market signals so that you can prepare for another market downturn like we saw in March 2020.
This lesson will be available to those who hold Ideas by TradeSmith, Trade360, and/or TradeSmith Platinum accounts.
TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers' exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith's content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results.
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