Kamis, 02 Desember 2021

Will There Be a “Santa Rally” This Christmas?

Stocks rebounded slightly this morning following a disastrous performance in the trading session prior.
December 2, 2021 12:23PM

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Will There Be a “Santa Rally” This Christmas?

Stocks rebounded slightly this morning following a disastrous performance in the trading session prior. In California, doctors confirmed the first US case of the Covid Omicron variant yesterday. The market plunged in response.

Then, today, equities opened higher before paring back most of their initial gains after another Omicron case was discovered in Minnesota. Since then, stocks shot higher as the major indexes reached new daily highs before dipping lower once more.

Indecision from the market continued to reign supreme.

“While it is nice to see a rally this morning, I am not sure investors should put much meaning into it,” explained Leuthold Group chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen.

“Fear and greed will dominate activity as investor worries oscillate between concerns the worst is not yet over and anxieties of missing out on any recovery.”

Some Wall Street banks have even started to break rank from the ever-bullish narrative. Bank of America Securities’ head US quant strategist, Savita Subramanian, believes traders should be wary of the recent dip.

“We remain cautious on S&P 500 amid a hawkish Fed tightening into an overvalued market,” Subramanian said.

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And though December has typically been a strong month for the market, that doesn’t mean it’s completely immune to corrections. A December selloff is certainly less common, but in the past, many “Santa rallies” haven’t arrived as expected.

Since 1950, the S&P saw 54 Decembers close higher. 18 times, December closed for a net loss.

It has historically been the best month for the index by far. But, as the 18 bearish Decembers show, there’s still a chance that stocks could drop.

And another bad month may be in store as bearish pressures – inflation, new Covid infections – grow worse with time.

"In the very near-term the biggest threat is the headlines related to the virus," said Niladri Mukherjee, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank head of CIO portfolio strategy.

"But as we go into 2022, inflation is the biggest risk for the markets as a whole. Inflation is looking awfully persistent. Obviously we had 6-7 months of [the Consumer Price Index] printing above 5%, now 6%. I wouldn't be surprised to see even higher prints going into January, February, especially if the variant actually leads to further closures."

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More lockdowns would be absolutely ruinous to both US stocks and the economy. That’s why Mukherjee correctly observed that it’s the most immediate threat to bulls, who may not be feeling so confident following recent remarks from the White House’s Covid czar, Jeff Zients.

When asked about a vaccine mandate in the US for domestic travel, Zients said “we’ll continue to look at all options, and everything’s on the table.”

Stocks dropped moments after Zients made these comments in an MSNBC interview.

It’s clear that the Biden Administration is considering new restrictions. State-by-state, governors could potentially reactivate lockdowns, too.

That’s why dip buyers have been hard to find over the last few days. Yes, the major indexes are up this morning, but the market hasn’t looked this fragile in months.

All it would take is another bad news story to spike equities lower. And if the assumptions about Omicron are true, in that it’s far more infectious than the other Covid variants (while also being significantly less deadly), we may be only hours away from a headline revealing a slew of new Omicron infections in the US.

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