Kamis, 30 Desember 2021

The "Best" Car Stock for 2022? (Not Tesla)

Stocks traded flat again this morning as the market threatened to hit new all-time highs once more.
December 30, 2021 1:41PM

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The "Best" Car Stock for 2022? (Not Tesla)

Stocks traded flat again this morning as the market threatened to hit new all-time highs once more. Traders had little to go on over the last few days due to lower-than-normal trading volume. A lack of significant economic data seemed to keep a lid on equities as well.

But with the year drawing to a close, many investors have turned their attention to 2022. And, in particular, picking the next crop of stocks to outperform the general market.

One potential overachiever is the automotive sector, where Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has taken the lion’s share of the profits. That doesn’t mean, however, that trend will continue next year. Relative to other companies in the sector, TSLA looks vastly overvalued.

General Motors (NYSE: GM), on the other hand, is a bargain by comparison. The stock trades at less than 1/10th the value of TSLA.

And for CEO Mary Barra, that presents a major opportunity for new growth. Barra plans on doubling the company’s annual revenue to roughly $300 billion by 2030, including $90 billion in electric vehicle sales. In 2023, the company projects that electric vehicle sales will total $10 billion. Tesla expects that its own automotive sales will hit $76 billion during that year.

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Of course, both GM and TSLA could be wrong. For TSLA to hit its targeted sales figure, the company’s automotive sales would need to almost triple its 2020 tally. To be fair, TSLA is on track to hit its 2021 revenue goal of $38 billion.

But does that mean the exponential growth will continue? And if it does, will such growth warrant sky-high TSLA share prices?

Meanwhile, in terms of electric car sales, it could be argued that GM is indeed poised for unprecedented levels of growth (at least for GM). And though it’s likely going to be a tough transition to electric, GM shares still remain subdued relative to TSLA, as well as many other growth-focused stocks.

“GM has built a scalable platform and is a leader in both autonomous vehicles and batteries,” said Stelliam Capital Management’s Ross Margolies.

A good example of this is the company’s recent gamble on Cruise, an autonomous driving firm that’s hoping to create “robot-taxis” within the next few years. GM’s stake in the company is worth an estimated $17 billion and by 2030, GM believes it will be generating roughly $50 billion in revenue.

In light of this, analysts have increasingly become “GM bulls.” JP Morgan strategist Ryan Brinkman went so far as to say that investors who buy now are essentially getting exposure to GM’s new ventures for free.

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GM was "positive on a number of fronts" according to Brinkman earlier this year. The investment "puts a stake in the ground relative to the value of Cruise" and shows "just how inexpensive GM's core automotive operations really are."

In other words, GM’s chasing increased growth and profitability at the same time. And you know what? They just might pull it off.

Believe it or not, it’s much easier for a major automaker with decades of experience to “flip the switch” on new revenue streams than a company like TSLA, which is still experiencing major growing pains en route to becoming worthy of its share price.

In many ways, TSLA did the tough sledding of pushing the electric car industry forward. Now, GM’s quickly playing catchup, and investors who get in early could enjoy a long-term rally with a stock that has, historically, been a major disappointment for shareholders relative to the general market.

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