| On the Brink of Insolvency Remember, cities and states pay their bonds payments using tax revenues. And with much of the US shut down for several months in 2020, tax revenues have completely collapsed for many cities and states. On top of this, taxpayers are fleeing big cities to avoid higher taxes and civil unrest that has plagued these areas for the last few months. According to a Rasmussen poll, 73% of Americans would “prefer to live in either a suburban area or a rural setting, rather than a large city or urban area.” As a result of this, many big cities like New York City and Chicago are teetering on the brink of insolvency. This is why the Democrats in Congress are pushing for a $3.4 trillion stimulus program, of which a large portion would go towards bailing out the largely blue cities that are in trouble. President Trump has bypassed this by issuing executive orders to continue unemployment benefits and other COVID-19 relief policies. As a result of this, Democrat-run cities and states that are now on the verge of insolvency will need to file for federal bailouts directly. With that in mind, keep an eye on the municipal bond sector. We might have the makings of another collapse. Indeed, high-yield muni bonds have been steadily losing momentum since early June. As I write this, they’re just barely clinging to their uptrend. Will President Trump risk letting a large city like New York or Chicago go bust? He wouldn’t win those cities in the election regardless of whether he bails them out or not. Moreover, playing hardball with the Democrats on this issue would be a big win for Trump with his base. As we near the election, this is a sector I’m watching closely for signs of trouble. Best Regards,  Graham Summers Editor, Money & Crisis |
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