| Swan Dive — July 22, 2025 Bubble Wrap Addison Wiggin Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time.
The Nasdaq logged its sixth consecutive record close.
The Dow, representing your contrarian blue-chip uncle at the family reunion, slipped slightly into the red.
Investors, still transfixed by Big Tech’s gravitational pull, appear eager to believe that earnings and AI will save the day — even as political crosswinds and global trade risks swirl like a Florida thunderstorm.
Earnings, regulation, tariffs, and bitcoin-fueled bravado are quietly rewriting the rules. For now.
If you took last week off, as we did, you missed a massive consolidation of AI dominance, a fresh crypto Wild West, and an epic skirmish between two of the world’s richest men and the government entities they can’t quite buy off. 📈 Big Tech Earnings: Up, Up… Then What? Investors are betting big on Big Tech. Alphabet and Tesla are up to report earnings tomorrow.
It’s still early days for earnings season, but so far, 83% of S&P 500 companies that reported have beaten expectations. That’s good. But expectations are set in a world before Trump’s next tariff tantrum.
Global Markets Investor observes that the Nasdaq 100 has now traded above its 20-day moving average for 61 trading days straight. That’s the longest streak since the 2000 dotcom bubble, when the stretch lasted for 77 sessions ending February 1999.  During the current streak, the Nasdaq 100 has rallied roughly 23%. In 1999, the index had already soared 50% at this point – suggesting that there’s more room to run if we’re to truly have an AI bubble to rival the dotcom boom.
Today, Wells Fargo’s Christopher Harvey sees another 11% gain ahead, citing stronger fundamentals than the dotcom days. “The S&P is not the same as it was 25 years ago,” he said.
True — but neither is the Federal Reserve, tariffs, or the global security order. 💥 Trump’s Fed Feud Escalates Yesterday, Trump denied reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked him out of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the weekend. Bessent returned the volley today by suggesting the Fed should be “put under review.”
Translation: The independence of the central bank is not a sacred cow — it’s a line item up for debate. And markets, however calm, are watching. Carefully.
Bessent, who may be at the top of Trump’s list to replace Powell in January, did not comment on the criminal probe Powell is now under for the renovation at the central bank that went way over budget.
If you think President Trump, Wall Street or the Federal Reserve have the economy under control… you really need to see this eye-opening video… 
It’s a system-wide lie. One that props up the entire U.S. economy — and is now starting to collapse. This story is unraveling quickly—yet no one is talking about—though they should be, and they soon will be. WATCH NOW.
🚘 Stellantis Gets Smashed by Tariffs The manufacturer of Jeep reported a surprise $2.7 billion loss for the first half of the year, citing Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported auto parts as a direct hit. North American shipments dropped 25% year-over-year.
And yes, they’ll be raising prices.
Stellantis’ new CEO gave a blunt assessment: “Tariffs are inherently inflationary.” It’s a lesson the broader market may relearn — painfully — if trade negotiations fall apart… 🇪🇺 EU Readies ‘Kindness’ as a Weapon The EU may deploy the Anti-Coercion Instrument if Trump follows through with his 30% tariff threats. It sounds soft, but it’s anything but: it could restrict U.S. tech access to EU contracts, limit investments, and impose fresh taxes on American firms.
Germany and Denmark, with massive exposure in autos and pharma, are already bracing. A retaliatory move could target $100 billion in goods, and don’t be surprised if red-state exports like bourbon and beef get the first slap. 🏦 JPMorgan Declares War on Fintechs Jamie Dimon is done giving away data.
With Trump’s administration planning to repeal Biden’s open banking rules, JPMorgan now plans to charge fintechs like Plaid hundreds of millions in new fees to access customer data.
For Plaid, the annual tab could hit $300 million — more than 75% of last year’s revenue. For many upstarts, the data gold rush is over. Dimon plans to erect a tollbooth. 💰 Bitcoin’s King Buys the Dip (Again) Strategy’s Michael Saylor now owns 3.05% of all circulating bitcoin, after spending another $740 million last week.
Formerly MicroStrategy, since adopting a business model of raising capital to buy bitcoin, its market cap has surged from around $1 billion to over $100 billion.
Trump Media & Technology Group joined the trend, buying $2 billion worth of bitcoin, sending shares up 3.11%.
In the fiat economy, that would be called “a helluva hedge.” We also can’t help but wonder if this is a way for President Trump to front-run the crypto legislation about to hit his desk… 🪙 Stablecoins Are Legal, But Are They Safe? As the Genius and Stable Acts get reconciled in Congress, streams of the debate over the new legislation are leaking out.
Critics argue that if banks and fintechs are allowed to issue stablecoins pegged to the dollar, it could usher in a new era of “wildcat banking,” reminiscent of the 1860s, when states printed their own currencies and bank runs were a weekly hobby.
Maple Finance CEO Sidney Powell warned: “If every fintech can issue a stablecoin, we could see instability that undermines the very credibility these bills aim to create.”
Buyer beware. Regulation does not equal stability. And banks only appear stable until the taxpayers are on the hook for paying them off.  If you can believe it, in 1835, the US Government actually distributed a surplus. Ha! (Source: The Atlantic) Wildcat banking might be chaotic, but the idea remains a libertarian pipe dream. Andrew Jackson was the last (and only) president to pay off the U.S. national debt. 🎲 Polymarket’s $112M Play to Reenter the U.S. Prediction market Polymarket plans to buy a U.S.-licensed derivatives exchange for $112 million to legally return stateside. It’s hired lobbyists, courted Trump allies, and ended two Biden-era investigations.
Kalshi and DraftKings should be worried. So should Vegas, as the city’s tourism numbers are already starting to sag as gambling moves online – and from gaming to sports betting, and now early betting on the 2028 presidential race. 🧳 UK’s Billionaire Exodus Shipping mogul John Fredriksen is fleeing the UK for the UAE, selling his $300 million London manor. Henley & Partners reports Britain is losing high-net-worth individuals faster than any other rich country.
New York City voters should take heed before they go to the polls and elect Zohran Mamdani – although they likely won’t. London and the UK, in general, are a petri dish for high-tax socialist policies.
Capital, too, can vote… with its feet… and choose lower tax jurisdictions.
Meanwhile, markets are putting on a dazzling show.
But in this middle stage of Trump's Great Reset, investors cheer new highs, and many retail buyers are unaware that the scaffolding — policy, trade, and trust — is, as yet, unsettled.
For the skeptic, it’s not only the rally you see that matters; the rubble underneath does as well. It’s worth paying attention while the sun shines and we enjoy a summer lull.
~ Addison P.S.: On Thursday at 11 a.m. we’ll be hosting Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz: “Rare Earth, Real Stakes.” We'll dig into rare earths, uranium, EVs, and the U.S.–China tech build out.
The last time we had Shad on for a conversation, we dug much deeper into the natural resources and precious metals than what you get in the Grey Swan model portfolio – a market segment that’s showing signs of strength amid the current market slowdown.
It’s worth joining to get a sweeping overview of how the trade war and AI arms race are impacting the natural resource markets. See you there.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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